Abstract: Plantation industry is one of the important sources of agricultural carbon emissions. In order to reduce the carbon emissions of plantation industry and promote the green and low‑carbon development of the plantation industry, it is necessary to clarify the current status of its carbon emissions and analyze its influencing factors. Based on the basic data of cultivation industry in Shandong Province from 2006 to 2021, this paper calculated the total carbon emissions by using IPCC emission factor method, decomposed the influencing factors by using LMDI model, and studied the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions from cultivation industry and the agricultural economic development by combining with Tapio decoupling theory. The results showed that the carbon emissions from the plantation industry in Shandong Province showed an M‑shaped trend during the study period, of which agricultural inputs accounted for more than 50% of the carbon emissions, focusing on the use of chemical fertilizers and agricultural films. There were three types of decoupling between carbon emissions from plantation industry and agricultural economic development such as strong decoupling, weak decoupling and weak negative decoupling, with strong decoupling and weak decoupling being the main ones. Among the factors, planting production efficiency, agricultural production structure, industrial structure, planting production technology level and rural population size inhibited planting carbon emissions, while per capita living standard, per capita area of crops sown and planting structure promoted, among them, improving planting production efficiency and stabilizing per capita living standard were more conducive to planting carbon emission reduction. The article hopes to provide a certain theoretical direction for the development of agriculture in Shandong Province through the analysis of plantation factors and the study of decoupling effect.

Key words: Shandong Province, plantation, carbon emissions, LMDI factor decomposition, decoupling effect

摘要： 种植业是农业碳排放重要来源之一，为降低种植业碳排放量，更好地推进种植业绿色低碳发展，须明确其碳排放现状，分析其影响因素。基于山东省2006—2021年种植业数据，运用IPCC排放系数法测算其碳排放总量，使用LMDI模型分解其影响因素，并结合Tapio脱钩理论探究种植业碳排放与农业经济发展间的脱钩关系。结果表明：研究期间山东省种植业碳排放量呈“M”型变化趋势，农业物资投入碳排放占比超50%，集中于化肥、农膜使用产生；种植业碳排放与农业经济发展间存在强脱钩、弱脱钩、弱负脱钩3种脱钩类型，以强脱钩和弱脱钩为主，种植业发展模式良好；各因素中，种植业生产效率、农业生产结构、产业结构、粮食生产技术水平以及农村人口规模对种植业碳排放呈抑制作用，人均生活水平、人均农作物播种面积、种植结构呈促进作用，其中提升种植业生产效率、稳定人均生活水平更利于种植业碳减排。

关键词: 山东省, 种植业, 碳排放, LMDI因素分解, 脱钩效应