Promoting energy efficiency and reducing emissions in agriculture is a suitable approach to achieving the green transformation of agriculture under the dual-carbon goal. The paper conducted an empirical analysis by using panel data from 31 provinces， municipalities，and autonomous regions between 2011 and 2021. The analysis examined the relationship between agricultural mechanization，environmental regulation，and their interaction terms，and agricultural carbon emissions by using fixed-effects models， moderating-effects models，and other methods. The study shows that agricultural mechanization leads to an increase in agricultural carbon emissions. Specifically， for every one unit increase in agricultural mechanization， agricultural carbon emissions increase by 0.237 units. On the other hand，environmental regulation reduces carbon emissions. Specifically， for every unit of environmental regulation，agricultural carbon emissions decrease by 0.225 units. The moderating effect suggests that there is a moderating effect of environmental regulation between agricultural mechanization and agricultural carbon emissions，with the positive effect of environmental regulation on agricultural carbon emissions reduction offsetting part of the negative effect of agricultural mechanization on agricultural carbon emissions reduction. The presence of heterogeneity implies that agricultural mechanization is more likely to lead to a reduction in agricultural carbon emissions in the main food-producing regions and the central region，as opposed to the non-main food-producing regions and the eastern and western regions. Accordingly， the following recommendations are made as follows: upgrading agricultural machinery and developing new green agricultural machinery, strengthening government supervision and environmental regulations, and tailoring the development of each region to reduce agricultural carbon emissions.

双碳目标下，推动农业节能减排是实现农业绿色转型的应有之义。基于2011—2021年31个省（市、自治区）面板数据，利用固定效应模型、调节效应模型等方法，实证检验农业机械化、环境规制以及两者交互项与农业碳排放的关系。研究发现：农业机械化增加农业碳排放，具体而言，农业机械化每提升1个单位，农业碳排放量将增加0.237个单位。环境规制会减少碳排放，具体而言，环境规制每提升1个单位，农业碳排放量将减少0.225个单位。调节效应表明，环境规制在农业机械化与农业碳排放之间存在调节效应，环境规制对农业碳减排的正向作用抵消农业机械化对农业碳减排的部分负向作用。异质性表明：相较于非粮食主产区与东、西部地区，农业机械化有利于减少粮食主产区和中部地区农业碳排放量。据此提出以下建议：升级农业机械，发展新型绿色农机；政府加强监管，加大环境规制力度；各地区因地制宜发展，降低农业碳排放。