Abstract: Agricultural mechanization is an important part of modern agricultural rural construction in China. The impact of agricultural mechanization on the agricultural regional economy is analyzed to provide reference value for future agricultural economic development. Chinas interprovincial panel data from 2010 to 2021 are selected to test the influence mechanism of agricultural mechanization and rural labor force on the development of agricultural economy using the fixed effects, intermediary effects and panel threshold model. The results of the study show that, firstly, agricultural mechanization can significantly and positively promote the development of agricultural economy, and in the regional analysis, agricultural mechanization in the eastern region has the greatest impact on the agricultural economy, which is significantly higher than the national average level. Secondly, through the analysis of mediation effect, it is found that only the labor force transfer in the central region can produce mediation effect, and the labor force transfer in other regions produces masking effect. Finally, through the panel threshold model analysis, it is found that the average education level of rural residents has a threshold effect in the relationship between agricultural mechanization and the agricultural economy, and when the average education level of rural residents reaches the threshold, agricultural mechanization has a significant impact on the development of the agricultural economy. Based on this, it is necessary to continue to improve the level of agricultural mechanization in China, to further improve the agricultural mechanization service market and agricultural machinery purchase subsidy policy, to build and improve the agricultural machinery socialized service system that serves the agricultural operators agricultural machinery operations, and to guide the labor force transfer in accordance with the local conditions, so as to promote the sustainable development of agricultural regional economy in China.

Key words: agricultural mechanization, rural labor migration, agricultural economy, intermediary effect, panel threshold model

摘要： 农业机械化是我国现代农业农村建设的重要组成部分，分析农业机械化对农业区域经济的影响，为农业经济发展提供参考价值。选取2010—2021年我国省际面板数据，利用固定效应、中介效应和面板门槛模型检验农业机械化、农村劳动力对农业经济发展的影响机制。研究结果表明：首先，农业机械化能显著正向推动农业经济发展，区域分析中，东部地区的农业机械化对农业经济的影响最大，明显高于全国平均水平。其次，通过中介效应分析发现，只有中部地区的劳动力转移可以产生中介效应，其他地区的劳动力转移产生遮掩效应。最后，通过面板门槛模型分析发现，农村居民平均受教育水平在农业机械化与农业经济的关系中具有门槛效应，当农村居民平均受教育水平达到门槛值后，农业机械化对农业经济发展具有显著性影响。基于此，需继续提升我国的农业机械化水平，进一步完善农业机械化服务市场和农机购置补贴政策，构建并完善服务农业经营者农机作业的农机社会化服务体系、因地制宜地引导劳动力转移等，以促进我国农业区域经济可持续发展。

关键词: 农业机械化, 农村劳动力转移, 农业经济, 中介效应, 面板门槛模型