Abstract: Exploring the characteristics of agricultural technological progress and the choice of growth path is the inevitable way to achieve the high‑quality development of China's agriculture. This paper takes cotton as the research object and, based on the panel data of 12 major cotton‑producing regions in China, establishes a Translog production function on the basis of the stochastic frontier model. It employs the elasticity of factor substitution to determine the progress bias of cotton production in China and analyzes the growth path of cotton production through the “two‑dimensional space diagram”. The results indicate that the output elasticity of labor factors is positive, with an average of 0.032 1. The output elasticity of fertilizer factors shows a significant downward trend, with an average of -0.071 5. The output elasticity of machinery and plastic film factors rises slowly, with averages of 0.044 1 and 0.099 7, respectively. There exists a substitution relationship among input factors. The average substitution elasticity of machinery for labor and fertilizer is 0.532 and 0.462, respectively. The average substitution elasticity of fertilizer for labor is 0.522, and the average substitution elasticity of plastic film for fertilizer is 0.487. The growth path of cotton has shifted from land productivity orientation to labor productivity orientation. There is heterogeneity in the technological progress bias of cotton in different regions, and most provinces are inclined towards labor‑saving technological progress. Therefore, it is necessary not only to focus on the level of modern agricultural machinery equipment in major cotton‑producing regions and enhance the cotton production industrial chain but also to rationally apply biochemical technologies and choose the appropriate direction of technological progress based on regional factor endowments in accordance with local conditions.

Key words: cotton industry, induced technological change, better towards technological progress, beyond the log?production function

摘要： 探究农业技术进步特征及其增长路径选择是实现我国农业高质量发展的必然途径。以棉花为研究对象，基于我国12个棉花主产区的面板数据，以随机前沿模型为基础建立超越对数生产函数，采用要素替代弹性判别我国棉花生产进步偏向并通过“二维空间相图”分析棉花生产增长路径。结果表明：劳动要素产出弹性为正，均值为0.032 1，化肥要素产出弹性下降趋势明显，均值为-0.071 5，机械、农膜要素产出弹性缓慢上升，均值分别为0.044 1、0.099 7；投入要素之间存在替代关系，机械对劳动、化肥的替代弹性均值为0.532、0.462，化肥对劳动的替代弹性均值为0.522，农膜对化肥的替代弹性均值为0.487；棉花生产增长路径已由土地生产率导向转变为劳动生产率导向，不同地区棉花技术进步偏向存在异质性，大多数省份偏向劳动节约型技术进步。因此，既要聚焦棉花主产区现代农机装备水平，提升棉花生产产业链条，还应合理运用生物化学技术，根据地区要素禀赋因地制宜选择合适生产技术进步方向。

关键词: 棉花产业, 诱致性技术变迁, 偏向技术进步, 超越对数生产函数