Abstract: Accelerating the comprehensive green transformation of agriculture and continuously improving the rural ecological environment is a key step to continuously promote the structural reform of the agricultural supply side and a key initiative to build a strong socialist modernization country. Based on the panel data of 17 prefecture‑level cities in Shandong Province from 2006 to 2022, the evaluation system of agricultural green development and green finance was constructed through the entropy value method, and the dynamic panel model, mediator model and threshold model were used to study the intrinsic association between green finance, agricultural technological progress and agricultural green development. The results showed that green finance had a promoting effect on agricultural green development, and the influence effect existed in the “logarithmic” distribution characteristic of east‑high‑middle‑low‑west‑flat, green finance indirectly affected agricultural green development by influencing the progress of agricultural technology, and the value of intermediary effect was 5.34%. There was a double threshold effect on agricultural technology progress on the green financial impact of agricultural green development , in the threshold value of 11.766, the promoting effect of green finance on agricultural green development increased at the margin. Therefore, it is proposed to increase the coverage of green finance to “credit” the province's economic development, comprehensively innovate agricultural technology to promote the agricultural modernization, and insist on the coordination and integration of green financial resources to promote the green development of agriculture in the light of the situation and other policy recommendations.

Key words: Shandong Province, green finance, agricultural technology progress, agricultural green development, intermediary effect, threshold effect

摘要： 加快农业全面绿色转型，持续改善农村生态环境是推动农业供给侧结构性改革的关键步骤，是构建社会主义现代化强国的关键举措。基于2006—2022年山东省17地级市面板数据，通过熵值法构建农业绿色发展和绿色金融评价体系，采用动态面板模型、中介模型和门槛模型研究绿色金融、农业技术进步和农业绿色发展之间的内在关联。结果表明：绿色金融对农业绿色发展具有促进作用，且影响效果存在东高—中低—西平的“对号型”分布特征；绿色金融通过影响农业技术进步间接影响农业绿色发展，中介效应值为5.34%；农业技术进步对绿色金融影响农业绿色发展存在双重门槛效应，在迈过11.766的门槛值后，绿色金融对农业绿色发展的促进效应边际递增。因此，提出要增加绿色金融覆盖面，“贷”动全省经济发展；全面创新农业技术，推动农业现代化发展；坚持协调整合绿色金融资源，因势利导推动农业绿色发展等政策建议。

关键词: 山东省, 绿色金融, 农业技术进步, 农业绿色发展, 中介效应, 门槛效应