Abstract: Exploring the impact mechanism of agricultural machinery service outsourcing on green agriculture is to seek sustainable development paths for green agriculture. Based on the Panel data of 31 provinces (cities and autonomous regions) in China from 2012 to 2021, the fixed effect model and threshold model are used to empirically test the impact of agricultural machinery service outsourcing on green agriculture and the threshold effect. The results indicate that agricultural machinery service outsourcing can significantly promote green agriculture. Heterogeneity analysis is found that agricultural machinery service outsourcing has a significant promoting effect on green agriculture in both major grain producing and non major grain producing areas, but has a greater promoting effect on green agriculture in non major grain producing areas. The promoting effect of agricultural machinery service outsourcing in the sowing, harvesting, and plowing stages on green agriculture decreases in sequence. The impact of agricultural machinery service outsourcing on green agriculture is based on the dual threshold effect of aging and scale. As the degree of aging deepens, the promoting effect of agricultural machinery service outsourcing on green agriculture presents an inverted U-shaped feature of "low high low". With the expansion of scale, the promotion effect of agricultural machinery service outsourcing on green agriculture has shown an increasing trend. Based on this, it is proposed to build a new mechanism for socialized agricultural machinery services and improve the outsourcing system of agricultural machinery services, carry out the differentiated support policies to promote balanced regional development,  revitalize the rural land resources and actively respond to the aging population to promote the development of green agriculture.

Key words: outsourcing of agricultural machinery services, green agriculture, aging, scaling, threshold effect

摘要： 探究农机服务外包对绿色农业的影响机制,旨在寻求绿色农业的可持续发展路径。基于全国31个省(市、自治区)2012—2021年的面板数据,使用固定效应模型、门槛模型实证检验农机服务外包对绿色农业的影响以及门槛效应。结果表明:农机服务外包能够显著促进绿色农业;异质性分析发现,农机服务外包对粮食主产区、非粮食主产区的绿色农业均存在显著的促进作用,但对非粮食主产区绿色农业促进作用更大,播种环节、收割环节和翻耕环节的农机服务外包对绿色农业的促进作用依次递减。农机服务外包对绿色农业的影响存在基于老龄化和规模化的双门槛效应,随着老龄化程度的加深,农机服务外包对绿色农业的促进作用呈现“低—高—低”的倒U型特征;随着规模化的扩大,农机服务外包对绿色农业的促进作用呈现递增特征。据此,提出构建农机社会化服务新机制,完善农机服务外包体系;实施差异化扶持政策,推动区域均衡发展;盘活农村土地资源,积极应对人口老龄化以促进绿色农业发展。

关键词: 农机服务外包, 绿色农业, 老龄化, 规模化, 门槛效应