Abstract: China has stepped into a deeply aging society, and the socialized service of agricultural machinery is expected to become a new path to alleviate the aging of the rural population. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China (except Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) from 2011 to 2021, a fixed-effects model is used to empirically analyze the impact and mechanism of rural population aging on agricultural machinery socialized services. The results show that rural population aging has a significant promotion effect on farm machinery socialization services, there is significant heterogeneity in the promotion effect of rural population aging on farm machinery socialization services, the quantity of labor force and the price of labor force play a partly intermediary role in the process of rural population aging positively affecting farm machinery socialization services, and their intermediary share is 38.2% and 27.3%, respectively. Accordingly, suggestions are made to further improve agricultural machinery socialization services, promote regional coordinated development, and develop science and technology to reduce dependence on labor.

Key words: aging of the rural population, agricultural machinery socialization services, labor quantity, labor price, mediating effects

摘要： 我国已踏入深度老龄化社会,农机社会化服务有望成为纾解农村人口老龄化的新路径。基于2011—2021年中国31个省份(港澳台地区除外)的面板数据,采用固定效应模型实证分析农村人口老龄化对农机社会化服务的影响及作用机制。结果表明:农村人口老龄化对农机社会化服务具有显著的促进作用;农村人口老龄化对农机社会化服务的促进作用存在显著的异质性;劳动力数量和劳动力价格在农村人口老龄化正向影响农机社会化服务的过程中发挥部分中介作用,其中介占比分别为38.2%、27.3%。据此,提出进一步完善农机社会化服务、推进区域协调发展、发展科技以减少对劳动力的依赖程度等建议。

关键词: 农村人口老龄化, 农机社会化服务, 劳动力数量, 劳动力价格, 中介效应