Research on the threshold effect of financial support for rural revitalization: Empirical analysis based on the provincial panel data of China

doi:10.13733/j.jcam.issn.2095-5553.2025.03.048

Abstract

Abstract:

Promoting rural rejuvenation with high-quality financial development is a new requirement of the times for financial system. Based on the panel data from 31 provincial administrative regions in China from 2007 to 2022, incorporating three dimensions of finance （i.e. scale, structure and efficiency） into an integrated framework, and applying the panel fixed-effect model and the threshold regression model, this paper comprehensively and systematically examines the direction, intensity and heterogeneity of the impact of financial development on rural revitalization. The main findings are as follows. First, the three dimensions of regional financial supply have all played a positive role in promoting China's rural revitalization, and this role is very robust, implying that finance has become an important force for high-quality rural development in China in the new era. However, it should also be noted that there are differences in the strength of effects of financial scale, structure and efficiency. Second, although financial development has significantly boosted rural revitalization, this driving effect has obvious threshold characteristics. At the national level, there is an inverse-U shaped relationship between financial scale and rural revitalization index, while there is a significant non-linear characteristic of “marginal effect” diminishing in the impact of financial structure and efficiency on rural revitalization index. At the regional level, the manifestation of the threshold effect also differs across different regions. That is, the threshold effect of financial development on rural revitalization index also has obvious spatial heterogeneity.

Key words: financial development, rural revitalization, threshold effect, regional heterogeneity

摘要：

金融高质量发展助力乡村复兴是时代对金融系统的新要求。基于我国31个省级行政单元2007—2022年的面板数据，将金融规模、结构和效率纳入同一框架，运用双向固定效应模型和门槛回归模型等方法，全面系统地检验金融发展对乡村振兴的影响方向、作用强度及其异质性门槛效应。结果表明，区域金融供给的三个维度对中国乡村振兴均产生正向促进作用，且这种作用具有很好的稳健性，金融已成为助力新时代中国乡村高质量发展的重要力量，但也须注意三个维度的作用强度存在差异。尽管金融发展显著地推动乡村振兴，但这种驱动效应具有明显的门槛特征。在全国层面，金融规模与乡村振兴水平之间存在“倒U型”关系，而金融结构和金融效率对乡村振兴水平的影响则呈现出显著的正向促进且“边际效应”递减的非线性特征；在区域层面，金融发展影响乡村振兴的门槛效应在东中西部地区的表现形式也有所不同，即金融发展对乡村振兴的门槛效应还具有明显的空间异质性。

关键词: 金融发展, 乡村振兴, 门槛效应, 区域异质性

CLC Number:

F323

Ying Mei. Research on the threshold effect of financial support for rural revitalization: Empirical analysis based on the provincial panel data of China[J]. Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization, 2025, 46(3): 343-352.

应媚. 金融助力乡村振兴的门槛效应研究——基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析[J]. 中国农机化学报, 2025, 46(3): 343-352.

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