Abstract: In order to explore the path of agricultural plant protection mechanization upgrading, and speed up the whole process of agricultural mechanization to realize agricultural modernization, this paper empirically analyzes the key factors affecting farmers' choice of efficient plant protection machinery by using multivariate logit model based on the micro survey data of 837 rice growers in Jiangsu Province. The study  results show that the scale of production and management, especially the small scale of the plot is the key factor  hindering the development of plant protection machinery. The specialized plant protection services can promote the popularization and application of large‑scale and efficient plant protection machinery, but it is difficult to overcome the scale barriers in upgrading plant protection machinery. Professional services have a significant impact on the adoption of large‑scale and efficient plant protection machinery by large‑scale farmers, while their impact on small‑scale farmers is limited. In the process of promoting the application of large and efficient plant protection machinery, it is not only necessary to expand the overall management scale of farmers , but more importantly, to solve the problem of small area of a single plot. In addition, vigorously developing specialized plant protection services that can adapt to the characteristics of current agricultural management entities is also the key to promote the upgrading of agricultural plant protection machinery in China.

Key words: plant protection machinery, planting scale, professional service, multivariate Logit model

摘要： 为探究农业植保环节机械化升级路径，加快农业全程机械化进程实现农业现代化，借助江苏省837个水稻种植户的微观调研数据，运用多元Logit模型，实证分析影响农户高效植保机械选择的关键因素。研究发现：生产经营规模尤其地块规模较小是阻碍植保机械发展的关键因素；植保专业化服务能够促进大型高效植保机械的推广应用，但难以破除植保机械升级中的规模障碍；专业化服务对大规模农户采纳大型高效的植保机械影响效果较大，而对小规模农户的作用效果有限。在推广应用大型高效植保机械过程中，不仅需要扩大农户整体的经营规模，更重要的是解决单个地块面积小的问题；此外，大力发展能够适应当前农业经营主体特点的植保专业化服务也是推动中国农业植保机械升级的关键。

关键词: 植保机械, 种植规模, 专业化服务, 多元Logit模型