Abstract: The development of the digital economy provides opportunities for the outsourcing of agricultural machinery services. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China from 2011 to 2021, using the FGLS model, IV-2SLS, IVGMM, threshold model and other methods, we empirically test the effect and mechanism of the digital economy on the outsourcing of agricultural machinery services, and find that the digital economy plays a significant role in promoting the outsourcing of agricultural machinery services, specifically, for every unit of improvement in the digital economy, agricultural machinery service outsourcing will be increased by 0.349 units. The mechanism test shows that the digital economy indirectly promotes the outsourcing of agricultural machinery services by promoting nonagricultural employment, strengthening social networks, and industrial agglomeration paths. The threshold model shows that the digital economy has a reversal effect of aging and a marginal incremental effect of marketization on agricultural machinery service outsourcing. Specifically, the reversal effect of aging is shown as the regression coefficient of digital economy on agricultural machinery service outsourcing changes from 0.244 to -0.012 5 when aging crosses the threshold of 0.017 1, the marginal incremental effect of marketization is shown as the regression coefficient of digital economy on agricultural machinery service outsourcing changes from 0.031 7 to 0.565 when marketization crosses the threshold of 3.25. The heterogeneity shows that the digital economy on agricultural machinery service outsourcing has significant geographical differences, agricultural functional area differences, and topographical location differences, and that the digital economy promotes agricultural machinery service outsourcing more in the western region, the main grainproducing areas, and the plains.

Key words: digital economy, outsourcing of agricultural machinery services, nonagricultural employment, social networks, industrial agglomeration

摘要： 数字经济的发展为农机服务外包提供契机。基于2011—2021年全国31个省(市、自治区)面板数据，利用FGLS模型、IV-2SLS、IV-GMM、门槛模型等方法，实证检验数字经济对农机服务外包的影响效应与作用机理，研究发现：数字经济对农机服务外包具有显著的促进作用，具体而言，数字经济每提升1个单位，农机服务外包将会提升0.349个单位。机制检验表明，数字经济通过促进非农就业、强化社会网络与产业集聚途径，间接推动农机服务外包。门槛模型表明，数字经济对农机服务外包存在老龄化的逆转效应和市场化的边际递增效应。具体而言，老龄化的逆转效应表现为当老龄化越过门槛值0.017 1时，数字经济对农机服务外包的回归系数由为0.244变为-0.012 5；市场化的边际递增效应表现为当市场化越过门槛值3.25时，数字经济对农机服务外包的回归系数由为0.031 7变为0.565。异质性表明，数字经济对农机服务外包呈现出显著的地理差异、农业功能区差异和地形区位差异，数字经济对西部地区、粮食主产区和平原地区农机服务外包的促进更明显。

关键词: 数字经济, 农机服务外包, 非农就业, 社会网络, 产业集聚