Abstract: Based on the provincial panel data of 31 provinces (cities) in China from 2011 to 2020, this paper explores the relationship between nonagricultural employment, agricultural machinery service outsourcing, and grain output. The results show that nonagricultural employment has a significant negative impact on grain output, while agricultural machinery service outsourcing has a significant effect on grain yield increase. The interaction between nonagricultural employment and agricultural machinery service outsourcing has a positive effect on grain output, and the positive effect of agricultural machinery service outsourcing on grain output is greater than the negative effect of nonagricultural employment on grain output. Therefore, it is proposed to guide farmers nonagricultural employment in a reasonable manner to ensure agricultural productivity. It is also recommended to improve the agricultural machinery service outsourcing system and promote agricultural modernization. Suggestions such as rational allocation of grain input factors and full exploitation of grain production capacity are made to promote food security.

Key words: nonagricultural employment, agricultural machinery service outsourcing, grain output

摘要： 基于全国31个省(市)省际面板数据，探究非农就业、农机服务外包以及两者的交互项与粮食产量的关系。研究结果表明：非农就业对粮食产量具有显著的负面影响；农机服务外包对粮食产量的增产效应显著；非农就业和农机服务外包的交互项对粮食产量有正向效应，且农机服务外包对粮食产量的正向效应大于非农就业对粮食产量的负面效应。据此提出合理引导农户非农就业，确保农业生产力；完善农机服务外包体系，推动农业现代化；合理配置粮食生产要素投入，充分挖掘粮食产能等建议，以期促进粮食安全。

关键词: 非农就业, 农机服务外包, 粮食产量