Abstract: The disequilibrium between supply and demand of agricultural products is a common problem being faced by many countries with severe novel coronavirus pneumonia. It has caused serious losses to agricultural producer income and urban consumer welfare. It points out the imbalance between the supply and demand of agricultural products in our country under the new crown pneumonia epidemic: the production end of agricultural products is difficult to sell, farmers suffer heavy losses, the consumption end of the agricultural product supply is tight, and the basic characteristics of residents welfare are damaged. This study uses uncertainty economics theory to comprehensively analyze the internal mechanism of the disequilibrium between the supply and demand of agricultural products in China. The results indicate that the outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic has brought serious uncertainty to the health and safety of practitioners engaged in the circulation of agricultural products, which was regarded as the main reason for the disequilibrium between supply and demand. The uncertainty was demonstrated by the dramatically increasing circulation cost of agricultural products and the enforced interruption of the transactions and logistics for some agricultural products. Therefore, it is suggested that government should implement insurance system for public health emergency, innovate the business model for agricultural products circulation, increase the temporary subsidy, release the epidemic risk level directly and train the antiepidemic ability for agricultural product circulation practitioners. These public efforts would reduce the additional cost caused by the uncertain factors such as epidemic situation, ensure the effective operation of supply chain for agricultural products, and guarantee the safety and stability of agricultural industry chain, which would be helpful to avoid the recurrence of the similar issue on disequilibrium between supply and demand.

Key words: COVID-19 epidemic, agricultural products, disequilibrium between supply and demand, uncertainty risk, health cost

摘要： 农产品供需失衡是新冠肺炎爆发初期疫情严重国家所面临的普遍难题，给农业生产者收入和城市消费者福利造成重大损失。在现有文献基础上，指出新冠肺炎疫情下我国农产品供需失衡：生产端农产品销售困难、农民损失惨重，消费端农产品供应偏紧、居民福利受损的基本特征。运用不确定性经济学理论，系统分析我国农产品供需失衡问题形成的内在机制，认为新冠肺炎疫情的突然爆发，给农产品流通从业人员的健康安全带来严重的不确定性，导致农产品流通成本猛然增加，使得农产品交易与物流被迫中断，是疫情下供需失衡的主要原因。因此，建议我国政府在新的重大疫情爆发之时，应及时推行公共卫生事件健康保险，鼓励农产品流通模式创新，增加农产品流通临时补贴、定向发布疫情风险等级信息，开展从业人员防疫能力培训，以降低疫情爆发所产生的额外成本，保障农产品供应链的有效运转和农业产业链的安全稳定，避免类似的供需失衡问题再度发生。

关键词: 新冠疫情, 农产品, 供需失衡, 不确定性, 健康成本