Abstract: With the migration of the rural labor force, the agricultural labor force has become depleted, which has raised the need for efficient fertilizer utilization. Based on panel data of major wheat producing provinces in China from 2004 to 2018 coupled with the stochastic frontier production function model, this paper deduced the fertilizer use efficiency function and established the functional relationship between fertilizer use efficiency and influencing factors. Empirical methods were used to study the impact of weak labor forces on wheat fertilizer use efficiency, estimate the substitution effect of mechanization on the feminization and parttime work of the labor forces, and examine the adjustment effect of mechanization on fertilizer use efficiency. The results showed that the wheat fertilizer use efficiency in China was still low (about 34%). In general, the weakness of agricultural labor forces had not affected the efficiency of wheat fertilizer use, because mechanization made up for the lack of physical strength of the agricultural labor forces. However, aging had a negative effect on fertilizer use efficiency. Therefore, in order to avoid the possible negative effects of the feminization, aging and concurrent business behavior of agricultural labor, this study suggested that it was necessary to continuously improve the rural education level, intensify agricultural science and technology training, develop and promote agricultural machinery applicability for the current situation of rural labor forces, and improve the substitution effect and adjustment effect of agricultural mechanization, so as to ensure the implementation effect of the agricultural fertilizer reduction and efficiency improvement plan. 

Key words: labor force weakness, fertilizer use efficiency, factor substitution, adjustment effect, mechanization, stochastic frontier production function

摘要： 随着农村劳动力转移，农业劳动力出现弱质化现象，由此带来了人们对农业化肥利用效率的担忧。基于2004—2018年全国小麦主产省面板数据，利用随机前沿生产函数模型，推导化肥利用效率函数，建立化肥利用效率和影响因素函数关系，实证研究劳动力弱质化对小麦生产化肥利用效率影响，并估计机械化对劳动力女性化和兼业化的替代效果，考察机械化对化肥利用效率的调节效应。结果显示：我国小麦主产省化肥利用效率仍然偏低（34%左右），总体上农业劳动力弱质化并未影响小麦生产化肥利用效率，因为机械化调节效应弥补了农业劳动力弱质化不足，但是老龄化对化肥利用效率有负面影响。为此提出：为避免农业劳动力女性化和老龄化可能带来负面影响，需要继续提高农村教育水平，加大农业科技培训力度，研发推广适用于农村劳动力现状的农业机械，提高农业机械化的替代作用和调节效果，确保农业化肥减量增效计划实施效果。

关键词: 劳动力弱质化, 化肥利用效率, 要素替代, 调节效应, 机械化, 随机前沿生产函数