Abstract:  The popularization of the Internet and the level of mechanization play important roles in the transformation and development of the pig breeding industry. Based on the relevant panel data of provinces (cities and districts) in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,  a comprehensive FGLS estimation was constructed to test the impact of Internet popularization and mechanization level on pig productivity,  and it was found that both of them significantly promoted pig productivity. At the same time,  according to the law of diminishing marginal returns,  the promotion effect of Internet popularization and mechanization on pig production capacity may be nonlinear and affected by a certain level of development. Therefore,  threshold variables of different development levels were introduced to build a threshold model to test the nonlinear promotion effect of the two on pig productivity. The results showed that the popularity and mechanization of the Internet were affected by the threshold variables of different development levels. When the development level was lower than 0.016 8,  the impact coefficient of Internet popularization on pig production capacity was 0.053 333 5,  which was significant at the level of 5%. When the development level was higher than 0.016 8,  the impact coefficient of Internet popularization on pig production capacity decreased to 0.018 617 2 and lost significance. When the development level was lower than 0.017 2,  the influence coefficient of mechanization level on pig production capacity was 0.218 45,  which was significant at the level of 1%. When the development level was higher than 0.017 2,  the influence coefficient of mechanization level on pig production capacity was reduced to 0.149 116 3,  which was significant at the level of 5%. The above research results showed that the popularity of the Internet and the level of mechanization have a nonlinear promoting effect on the pig production capacity of provinces (cities and districts) in the Yangtze River economic belt. The promoting effect of the popularity of the Internet and the level of mechanization on the pig production capacity was regulated by the threshold effect of different development levels. Only at the most appropriate development level can the promotion effect of the popularity of the Internet and the level of mechanization on the pig production capacity be maximized. Thus,  it is proposed to promote the indepth integration and development of ecommerce subjects and breeding entities and build an online trading platform. Suggestions were made on improving the innovation ability of mechanization,  building a “Trinity” mechanized talent team,  and improving the use efficiency of information technology and mechanical equipment in the pig breeding industry.

Key words: Internet popularization, mechanization level, Yangtze River Economic Belt, comprehensive FGLS estimation

摘要： 互联网普及和机械化水平对生猪养殖业转型发展具有重要作用。基于长江经济带各省（市、区）相关面板数据，通过构建全面FGLS估计检验互联网普及、机械化水平对生猪产能的影响效果，发现两者对生猪产能均有显著促进作用。同时根据边际报酬递减规律，互联网普及、机械化水平对生猪产能的促进效果可能是非线性的，受到一定发展水平的影响。因此引入不同发展水平门限变量，构建门限模型，检验两者对生猪产能的非线性促进作用。结果表明：互联网普及、机械化水平都受到不同发展水平的门限变量影响。当发展水平低于0.016 8时，互联网普及对生猪产能的影响系数是0.053 333 5，在5%的水平上显著。当发展水平高于0.016 8，互联网普及对生猪产能的影响系数降低到0.018 617 2，且失去显著性。当发展水平低于0.017 2时，机械化水平对生猪产能的影响系数是0.218 45，在1%的水平上显著，当发展水平高于0.017 2时，机械化水平对生猪产能的影响系数降低到0.149 116 3，在5%的水平上显著。因此，互联网普及、机械化水平对长江经济带各省（市、区）的生猪产能具有非线性促进作用，互联网普及、机械化水平对生猪产能的促进作用受到不同发展水平的门槛效应调节，只有在最适宜的发展水平下，互联网普及、机械化水平对生猪产能的促进效果才能最大化。从而提出推进电商主体与养殖实体的深度融合发展，打造线上交易平台；提高机械化创新能力，打造“三位一体”的机械化人才队伍、提高生猪养殖业信息技术、机械装备的使用效率等建议。

关键词: 互联网普及, 机械化水平, 长江经济带, 全面FGLS估计