Simulation study on the coordinated development policy of regional agriculture and agricultural products logistics: Taking Sichuan Province for example

doi:10.13733/j.jcam.issn.2095-5553.2025.05.040

Abstract

Abstract: Coordinated development of agriculture and agricultural products logistics is an important condition for the rapid and stable development of agriculture. On the basis of the supply and demand mechanism, this paper analyzes the variable composition and mutual relationship of regional agriculture and agricultural products logistics system, gives the causal diagram of the system, establishes agricultural products logistics demand satisfaction rate and coordination cost indicators, and uses Vensim software to build a system dynamic model with the function of policy evaluation. Taking Sichuan Province as an example, with the relevant data from 2009 to 2021 collected, this model is employed to system simulation and policy experiments. The results show that Sichuan province has a high level of satisfaction of agricultural products logistics demand, and agriculture and agricultural products logistics development in coordination. However, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent recently, and it is urgent to increase 63.97% of agricultural products logistics capital. Agricultural products logistics market will be in short supply, the logistics industry needs to increase investment, so that the annual growth rate of agricultural products logistics capital is not less than 54.7%. According to the research conclusion, some suggestions are put forward to reasonable configure a policymaking team members, increase investment in agricultural products logistics, and improve the agricultural products logistics system.

Key words: agricultural products logistics, regional agriculture, coovdinated development, system dynamics, regression analysis, policy evaluation

摘要： 协调发展农业与农产品物流是农业实现快速而稳定发展的重要条件。以供求机制为基础分析区域农业与农产品物流系统变量组成及相互关系，给出该系统的因果关系图，确立农产品物流需求满足率和协调成本指标，使用Vensim软件构建具有政策评价功能的系统动力学模型。以四川省为例，收集2009—2021年相关数据，利用该模型进行系统仿真与政策试验。结果表明：四川省农产品物流需求满足水平较高，农业与农产品物流协调发展，但近期供不应求矛盾突出，急需增加63.97%的农产品物流资本；农产品物流市场将处于短缺状态，需物流业加大投入，使农产品物流资本年增长率不低于54.7%。并提出合理配备政策制定团队成员、加大农产品物流投入和完善农产品物流体系等建议。

关键词: 农产品物流, 区域农业, 协调发展, 系统动力学, 回归分析, 政策评价

CLC Number:

He Kailun, , Huang Xin. Simulation study on the coordinated development policy of regional agriculture and agricultural products logistics: Taking Sichuan Province for example[J]. Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization, 2025, 46(5): 301-311.

何开伦, , 黄欣. 区域农业与农产品物流协调发展政策仿真研究——以四川省为例[J]. 中国农机化学报, 2025, 46(5): 301-311.

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