Abstract:  The traditional mode of agricultural machinery manufacturing industry supplier selection has subjectivity and lag. There is an urgent need to seek a dynamic, sustainable supply chain model under the agricultural machinery manufacturing industry procurement strategy. In order to solve the problem of not being able to select and evaluate suppliers scientifically and accurately, the causalanalysis method is used to analyze the influencing factors of supplier indicators from the JIT supply chain perspective. Combined with the characteristics of agricultural machinery manufacturing, a dynamic sustainable agricultural machinery supply chain collaborative purchasing model is constructed to simulate and compare the degree of influence of three types of supplier response speed on supply chain resilience, and the simulation results show that the supply chain robustness is better under the JIT mode. In turn, combined with the simulation results, the evaluation index system of agricultural machinery manufacturing supplier selection under the matching JIT supply chain mode is established from five key influence aspects, namely, cost control ability, product competitiveness, quality assurance ability, technology research and development ability, and collaborative cooperation and responsiveness, and a modeling method for the extension of the object elements extensible superiority is proposed to improve the extensible hierarchical analysis method. The method combines the entropybased EAHP and CRITIC applied to determine the weights of indicators at all levels, ranking, and program selection, establish a judgment matrix by using the number of intervals instead of the specific value, solve the problem of the ambiguity of subjective judgment, calculate the degree of superiority by using the correlation function, and compares and analyzes the overall superiority and inferiority of each supplier with the rank of the individual indicators, to determine the order of the suppliers superiority and inferiority and thus to select the most reliable and replaceable supplier. Finally, the optimal purchasing model match is calculated to be 0.963, the computational example study verifies the applicability and feasibility of the new method in the supplier selection problem.

Key words: agricultural machinery manufacturing enterprises, suppliers, JIT supply chain, dynamic sustainability, system dynamics, extension analytic hierarchy process

摘要： 传统模式下农机制造业供应商选择存在主观性和滞后性，迫切需要寻求一种动态可持续供应链模式下的农机制造业采购策略。为科学准确地选择评价供应商，从JIT供应链视角利用因果分析方法分析供应商指标的影响因素。结合农机制造的特点，构建动态的可持续农机供应链协同采购模型，仿真对比3种供应商反应速度类型对供应链韧性的影响程度。模拟结果表明，JIT模式下供应链稳健性较好，进而从成本控制能力、产品竞争能力、质量保障能力、技术研发能力和协同合作响应能力5个关键影响方面，建立匹配JIT供应链模式下的农机制造供应商选择评价指标体系，并提出一种改进可拓层次分析法的物元可拓优度扩展的模型方法。基于熵权的EAHP和CRITIC相结合，用于确定各级指标权重、排序和方案优选，通过使用区间数取代具体数值建立判断矩阵，解决主观判断模糊性的问题，并利用关联函数计算优度，对各个供应商的整体优劣和单项指标的等级对比分析，从而确定供应商的优劣顺序，进而选出最可靠的供应商和可替换供应商。最后，计算得到最优采购模式匹配度为0.963，验证该方法在供应商选择问题中的适用性和可行性。

关键词: 农机制造企业, 供应商, JIT供应链, 动态可持续, 系统动力学, 可拓层次分析法