Abstract: In the context of rural revitalization and rural industry integration, it is of great significance to correctly understand and handle the coordinated development relationship between agricultural productive services industry and new agricultural operation entities. This study focuses on the coordinated development relationship between agricultural productive services industry and new agricultural operation entities. Based on the time series data of agricultural productive services industry and new agricultural operation entities in Jilin Province from 2010 to 2022, Cointegration analysis, Granger causality test and coupled coordination model are used to analyze the interaction and dynamic coupling development trend between agricultural productive services and new agricultural operation entities. Results show that during the research period, the development level of agricultural productive services industry and new agricultural operation entities in Jilin Province continues to climb (0.284 9-0.837 9, 0.100 1-0.994 1). There is longterm equilibrium relationship with significant positive correlation between agricultural productive services industry system and new agricultural operation entities system, and the two systems are mutually Grange reasons. From 2010 to 2022, the coupled coordination relationship between agricultural productive services industry and new agricultural operation entities in Jilin Province shows an obvious upward trend, successively experiencing antagonistic stage(0.410 9)—barely coordination stage(0.517 9-0.572 0)—primary coordination stage(0.637 4)—intermediate coordination stage(0.735 8-0.773 8)—high coordination stage(0.843 1-0.870 9-0.916 6-0.914 7-0.914 8-0.915 3-0.915 7). The current development of the two systems has coupled at a high level stage with stable relationship. Modern agriculture should be promoted through the coordinated development of agricultural productive services industry and new agricultural operation entities.

Key words: Jilin Province, agricultural productive services industry, new agricultural operation entities, Cointegration analysis, Granger causality test, coupled coordination

摘要： 在乡村振兴和农村产业融合大背景下，正确认识和处理农业生产性服务业和新型农业经营主体之间的协调发展关系具有重要意义。为明确农业生产性服务业与新型农业经营主体两系统的耦合协调关系，基于吉林省2010—2022年农业生产性服务业与新型农业经营主体的时间序列数据，运用协整分析、Granger因果检验和耦合协调模型分析农业生产性服务业与新型农业经营主体间的互动关系和动态耦合发展趋势。结果表明：吉林省农业生产性服务业与新型农业经营主体发展水平持续攀升，分别由0.284 9提升至0.837 9、0.100 1提升至0.994 1；农业生产性服务业与新型农业经营主体两系统存在着显著正相关的长期均衡关系，且互为格兰杰原因，即农业生产性服务业是有效促进新型农业主体发展的重要原因，新型农业经营主体是推动推动农业生产性服务业提升的重要动力；2010—2022年，吉林省农业生产性服务业与新型农业经营主体之间的耦合协调关系上升趋势明显，先后经历拮抗阶段(0.410 9)、勉强协调(0.517 9~0.572 0)、初级协调(0.637 4)、中级协调(0.735 8~0.773 8)、高度协调(0.843 1~0.870 9~0.916 6~0.914 7~0.914 8~0.915 3~0.915 7)的变化过程，目前两系统处于关系稳定的高水平耦合阶段。未来应通过促进农业生产性服务业与新型农业经营主体协调发展推进现代农业进程。

关键词: 吉林省, 农业生产性服务业, 新型农业经营主体, 协整分析, Granger因果检验, 耦合协调