Abstract:  Under the background of soybean revitalization, soybean has become the key crop of agricultural structure adjustment in Jilin Province. Based on the relevant data of soybean in Jilin Province from 1985 to 2019, this paper analyzed the supply response of soybean by establishing the Nerlove model. It was concluded that the shortterm supply price elasticity of soybean in Jilin Province was 0.23, while the longterm supply price elasticity was 0.39, indicating that the supply of soybean was slow and inelastic to the price. The expected price adjustment coefficient was 0.72, and the adjustment time delay was 1.39, indicating that the lag time of soybean growers in the adjustment of planting area behavior was about one year. Through analysis of the influencing factors of soybean supply response in Jilin Province, it was found that soybean sown area, soybean market price, soybean and corn yield ratio per unit area, and soybean related policies all had significant influences on soybean sown area in the current period. Based on this, the influence factors of the mechanism were analyzed and put forward to deepen agricultural supplyside structural reform, improve the system of rice bean crop rotation and soybean producer subsidy policy, and price stability. Also, intensify the improvement of soybean and maize comparison relations, and enhance soybean yield to encourage farmers in Jilin Province soybean planting sector, thereby ensuring the supply of soybeans.

Key words: soybean, supply response, Nerlove model, cobweb theory, income ratio per unit area, Jilin Province

摘要： 大豆振兴背景下,大豆成为吉林省农业结构调整的关键作物。本文利用1985—2019年吉林省大豆相关数据,通过建立Nerlove模型对大豆供给反应进行分析,得出吉林省大豆短期供给价格弹性为0.23,而长期供给价格弹性为0.39,表明大豆供给对价格反应较为迟缓,缺乏弹性。测得预期价格调整系数为0.72,调整时滞为1.39,表明大豆种植户在调整种植面积行为上的滞后期约为1年。通过对吉林省大豆供给反应影响因素分析发现滞后一期的大豆播种面积、大豆市场价格、大豆与玉米单位面积收益比和大豆相关政策都对当期大豆播种面积有显著影响。基于此本文剖析了各影响因素的作用机理,提出深化农业供给侧结构性改革、完善米豆轮作制度和大豆生产者补贴政策,稳定价格、改善大豆与玉米的比价关系,提高大豆种植收益等建议,以鼓励吉林省农户大豆种植积极性,保障大豆良性供给。

关键词: 大豆, 供给反应, Nerlove模型, 蛛网理论, 单位面积收益比, 吉林省