关键词: 吉林省, 农业生产性服务业, 新型农业经营主体, 协整分析, Granger因果检验, 耦合协调

Abstract: In the context of rural revitalization and rural industry integration, it is of great significance to correctly understand and handle the coordinated development relationship between agricultural productive services industry and new agricultural operation entities. This study focuses on the coordinated development relationship between agricultural productive services industry and new agricultural operation entities. Based on the time series data of agricultural productive services industry and new agricultural operation entities in Jilin Province from 2010 to 2022, Cointegration analysis, Granger causality test and coupled coordination model are used to analyze the interaction and dynamic coupling development trend between agricultural productive services and new agricultural operation entities. Results show that during the research period, the development level of agricultural productive services industry and new agricultural operation entities in Jilin Province continues to climb (0.284 9-0.837 9, 0.100 1-0.994 1). There is longterm equilibrium relationship with significant positive correlation between agricultural productive services industry system and new agricultural operation entities system, and the two systems are mutually Grange reasons. From 2010 to 2022, the coupled coordination relationship between agricultural productive services industry and new agricultural operation entities in Jilin Province shows an obvious upward trend, successively experiencing antagonistic stage(0.410 9)—barely coordination stage(0.517 9-0.572 0)—primary coordination stage(0.637 4)—intermediate coordination stage(0.735 8-0.773 8)—high coordination stage(0.843 1-0.870 9-0.916 6-0.914 7-0.914 8-0.915 3-0.915 7). The current development of the two systems has coupled at a high level stage with stable relationship. Modern agriculture should be promoted through the coordinated development of agricultural productive services industry and new agricultural operation entities.

Key words: Jilin Province, agricultural productive services industry, new agricultural operation entities, Cointegration analysis, Granger causality test, coupled coordination