关键词: 耕地利用, 碳排放, 时空差异, 协整分析, GWR模型

Abstract: Based on Chinas provincial panel data, this paper calculates the total carbon emission from cultivated land use in China, analyzes its temporal and spatial evolution characteristics, explores the relationship between carbon emission from cultivated land use and grain yield using cointegration analysis and Granger causality test, and reveals the driving factors of carbon emission from cultivated land use using the STIRPAT model and geographic weighted regression model (GWR). The study found that Chinas carbon emissions from cultivated land use generally showed an upward trend but entered a negative growth stage in 2017. The proportions of the four types of carbon emissions were waste treatment carbon emissions (48.165%), production factor input carbon emissions (46.924%), cultivated land planting carbon emissions (3.513%), and natural source carbon emissions (1.416%). At the same time, the spatial correlation test showed that the carbon emission from cultivated land use in China had significant regional aggregation characteristics. The carbon emission structure of cultivated land use in China was dominated by the carbon emission of production factor input and waste, and there were great differences in the types of carbon emission of cultivated land use among provinces. There was a longterm equilibrium relationship between the total carbon emission of cultivated land use and grain yield in China, and there was a oneway causal relationship between the carbon emission of cultivated land use to the growth of grain yield. The total rural population, the disposable income of rural residents, and the level of agricultural machinery all had a positive impact on the carbon emission of cultivated land use, and the influence coefficients are 0.624, 0.163, and 0.337, respectively. The regression coefficients of various influencing factors showed an obvious step distribution in space. The results showed that there were obvious temporal and spatial differences in carbon emissions from cultivated land use in China, and Chinas agricultural production still has the characteristics of high input, high output, and high pollution. Differentiated carbon reduction policies should be implemented according to local conditions based on the actual situation of all provinces (cities).

Key words: cultivated land utilization, carbon emissions, temporal and spatial differences, cointegration analysis, GWR model