关键词: 河北省, 农业碳排放, 空间演化, 探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)

Abstract: In order to clarify the current situation of agricultural carbon emissions at county level in Hebei Province and promote the process of agricultural carbon emission reduction, the agricultural carbon emissions of 118 counties (including countylevel cities) in Hebei Province were calculated based on the data from 2014 to 2020. Considering the differences in terrain and landform in counties of Hebei Province, it further calculates the agricultural carbon emission intensity with the help of agricultural crop planting area, and studies its annual average change rate in recent seven years. It found that there was a certain difference between the spatial distribution of agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural carbon emission intensity, but both had decreased significantly in recent two years. Agricultural carbon emissions had a positive spatial correlation, and during the study period, the spatial correlation gradually increased and then rapidly weakened. The LISA aggregation map showed its evolution law in local space. It also found that H-H aggregation appeared in the plain area, but since 2017, L-H aggregation area had gradually expanded in the H-H aggregation area. In Zhangjiakou and Chengde counties with higher elevations, L-L aggregation appears, with little fluctuation between years. In order to further reduce agricultural carbon emissions in Hebei Province, it is necessary to improve the utilization efficiency of agricultural materials and improve the soil environment. The government should strengthen the publicity of lowcarbon agriculture and increase the financial support for lowcarbon agriculture. It should combine the characteristics of county and develop the integration mode of agriculture and tourism. It is necessary to make full use of the spatial spillover effect to promote the process of agricultural carbon emission reduction.

Key words: Hebei Province, agricultural carbon emissions, spatial evolution, exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA)