Abstract:  In the context of green transformation of economic and social development in general, the impact of agricultural socialized services on agricultural non‑point source pollution is explored, aiming  to achieve pollution reduction and carbon reduction while providing strong support for improving the agricultural socialized service system. Based on the survey data of 360 cotton farmers in 5 prefectures and 7 counties in the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang, the paper examines the effect of socialized agricultural services on agricultural non‑point source pollution through ordinary least squares and propensity score matching methods, and further applies to the inverse probability weighting method to conduct an empirical test on the relationship between the degree of agricultural socialized services and the amount of agricultural non‑point source pollution emissions. Empirical results show that different types of agricultural socialized services have different impacts on agricultural non‑point source pollution. Among them, agricultural technical services and machinery services have a significant inhibitory effect on agricultural non‑point source pollution, which reduce the cost of agricultural inputs by about 1 070 yuan and 1 170 yuan per hectare for farmers, respectively, while insurance services exist a positive effect. Among the control variables, the farming years of farmers, the proportion of non‑agricultural labor in households and the scale of cotton planting have a significant positive effect on agricultural non‑point source pollution, while soil fertility has a negative effect. The higher the degree of adoption of agricultural socialized services, the lower the degree of agricultural non‑point source pollution emissions, and the synergy of agricultural machinery services and agricultural technology services can further reduce agricultural non‑point source pollution, compared with the adoption of machinery services or technical services only, the cost of agricultural inputs for farmers who purchase the two services is reduced by about 640 yuan and 800 yuan, respectively. Accordingly, it is proposed to actively promote the participation of all parties in the comprehensive management of environmental pollution and improve the collaboration and co‑management mechanism of environmental pollution prevention and control, strengthen agricultural science and technology investment, and develop advanced technologies for prevention and control of agricultural non‑point source pollution, grasp the farmers’ demand for differentiation, and provide countermeasures and suggestions for targeted agricultural socialized services.

Key words: Tarim River Basin, agricultural socialized services, agricultural non?point source pollution, OLS estimation method, propensity score matching method

摘要： 在经济社会发展全面绿色转型背景下，探究农业社会化服务对农业面源污染的影响，旨在实现减污降碳的同时，为完善农业社会化服务体系提供有力支撑。基于新疆塔里木河流域5地州7县360名棉农的调查数据，通过普通最小二乘法和倾向得分匹配法分析农业社会化服务对农业面源污染的影响，进一步运用逆向概率加权法对农业社会化服务采纳程度与农业面源污染排放量的关系进行实证检验。实证结果表明：不同农业社会化服务类型对农业面源污染的影响存在差异。其中，农业技术服务和农业机械服务对农业面源污染具有显著抑制作用，分别降低农户每公顷农资投入费用约1 070元和1 170元，而农业保险服务对农业面源污染存在显著正向影响。控制变量中，务农年限、家庭非农劳动力比例、种植规模对农业面源污染具有显著正向影响，而土壤肥力具有负向影响。农业社会化服务采纳程度越高，农业面源污染排放程度越低，且农业机械服务与农业技术服务的协同作用能够进一步降低农业面源污染，相较于仅采纳机械服务或技术服务，同时购买两项服务的农户农资投入费用分别减少约640元和800元。据此，提出积极推进各方主体参与环境污染综合治理，完善环境污染防控协作共治机制；加强农业科技投入，研发农业面源污染防控先进技术；把握农户差异化诉求，提供针对性农业社会化服务的对策建议。

关键词: 塔里木河流域, 农业社会化服务, 农业面源污染, 线性多元回归法, 倾向值得分匹配法