Abstract: In order to clarify the internal mechanism of farmers production behavior under the producer subsidy policies, explore farmers motivation for soybean planting, and stabilize soybean planting area and farmers income, the probit model is established through data investigation. This model explores the influencing factors of farmers soybean planting behavior change under producer subsidy policies from four aspects: Individual and family characteristics, production and management characteristics, market characteristics, and cognitive characteristics. The results showed that the education level, participation in cooperatives, years in soybean planting, area of soybean planting, difficulty of land circulation, average yield ratio of soybean and alternative crops, satisfaction with soybean producers subsidies, and risk perception of soybean planting had a significant impact on planting behavior. Conversely, age, total labor force, production input, land rent, and lagging soybean sales price did not exhibit statistical significance. Based on these findings, this paper proposes the following recommendations: improving the producer subsidy policy, strengthening the role of cooperatives, increasing yield levels, and strengthening policy advocacy.

Key words: soybean, Heilongjiang Province, producer subsidy, planting behavior, Probit model

摘要： 为厘清生产者补贴政策背景下农户生产行为的内在机理、发掘农户种植大豆的积极性、稳定大豆种植面积和农户收益，通过数据调研，建立probit模型，分别从个人及家庭特征、生产经营特征、市场特征和认知特征四个方面探究生产者补贴政策下农户大豆种植行为改变的影响因素。结果表明：文化水平、是否参加合作社、种植大豆年限、种植大豆面积、土地流转难易程度、大豆与替代作物平均收益比、农户对大豆生产者补贴满意程度、大豆种植风险认知对种植行为有显著影响，而年龄、劳动力总数、生产要素投入、土地租金、滞后一期大豆销售价格均未通过显著性检验。基于此，提出对策：完善生产者补贴政策；增强合作社作用；提高单产水平；加强政策宣传。

关键词: 大豆, 黑龙江省, 生产者补贴, 种植行为, Probit模型