Abstract:  Based on the panel data of 21 counties in the Northern Hebei mountainous area from 2008 to 2018, an evaluation index system was established. The agricultural ecological efficiency in the Northern Hebei mountainous area was measured by superefficiency SBM model. Through the time series analysis of Kernel density estimation and the direction distribution of ArcGIS, the spatial and temporal distribution pattern and macroevolution characteristics of agricultural ecological efficiency were explored. The traditional and spatial Markov transition probability matrices were constructed to further explore the temporal and spatial evolution of agricultural ecological efficiency in the Northern Hebei mountainous area and predict the longterm evolution trend. From 2008 to 2018, the agricultural ecological efficiency in the mountainous areas of Northern Hebei showed an upward trend in fluctuation, and most counties reached relative efficiency. The gap of agricultural ecological efficiency among counties narrowed, and the center of agricultural ecological efficiency shifted 3.95 km to the Northeast. Northern Hebei Mountains agricultural ecological efficiency was significantly affected by the geographics of the neighborhood areas. Spatial spillover effect was obvious. It had to maintain the original state of stability. It was difficult to achieve substantial leap forward transfer between adjacent years. At the same time, the agricultural ecological efficiency in the mountainous areas of northern Hebei had a trend of transferring and aggregating to the middle and high grades, which had some potential for improvement. However, it was difficult to achieve the overall transfer to the high grades. This paper studied the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and development trend of agricultural ecological efficiency, quantitatively reflected the sustainable development level of regional agriculture, and provided references for formulating local policies.

Key words: agricultural ecological efficiency, super efficiency SBM model, Markov chain, spatiotemporal evolution, Northern Hebei Mountains

摘要： 基于2008—2018年冀北山区21个县域的面板数据构建评价指标体系,采用超效率SBM模型对冀北山区农业生态效率进行测度分析;通过Kernel密度估计的时序分析和ArcGIS的方向分布探究农业生态效率时空分布格局和宏观演变特征;构建传统与空间马尔科夫转移概率矩阵,进一步探究冀北山区农业生态效率时空演变的内在规律,并预测长期演变趋势。2008—2018年冀北山区农业生态效率整体呈现波动中上升的趋势,大多数县域达到相对有效,县域间农业生态效率差距缩小,农业生态效率重心向东北方向偏移3.95 km;冀北山区农业生态效率受地理邻域背景影响作用较为显著,空间溢出效果明显,具有维持原状态的稳定性,相邻年份间难以实现大幅度跨越式转移,同时,冀北山区农业生态效率向中高等级转移聚集的趋势明显,具有一定的提升潜力,但难以实现整体向高等级的转移。研究农业生态效率的时空演变特征及发展趋势,定量化反映区域农业的可持续发展水平,可为当地政策的制定提供一定的参考.

关键词: 农业生态效率, 超效率SBM模型, 马尔科夫链, 时空演变, 冀北山区