关键词: 水资源安全, 粮食生产韧性, 耦合协调, 驱动因素

Abstract: The coordinated development of water resource security and grain production resilience is crucial for promoting high-quality agricultural development and ensuring food security in China. Using provincial panel data from major grain-producing regions between 2004 to 2022, a comprehensive evaluation index system was established to assess both water resource security and grain production resilience. The entropy method, coupling coordination degree model, and geographical detector were applied to quantitatively analyze the evaluation values, coupling coordination characteristics, and driving factors behind these two systems. The results revealed a general improvement in both water resource security and grain production resilience across the major grain-producing regions. The coupling coordination degree between the two systems has steadily increased, shifting from a state of near imbalance to one of tentative coordination. Spatially, the coordination followed a pattern described as “high in the north and low in the south, with two clusters”. Five key indicators were identified as primary drivers of coordinated development: effective irrigation area, annual precipitation, sewage treatment rate, local fiscal expenditure on agriculture, forestry, and water affairs and total water supply. The influence of these factors was found to increase when they interacted with each other. Therefore, to accelerate agricultural modernization, major grain-producing areas should not only improve water resource utilization efficiency but also tailor development models to local conditions in order to promote the integrated advancements of water security and grain production resilience.

Key words: water resource security, grain production resilience, coupling coordination, driving factors