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中国农机化学报

中国农机化学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (7): 335-345.DOI: 10.13733/j.jcam.issn.2095-5553.2025.07.047

• 农业机械化综合研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

农业技术进步对农业碳排放的影响研究——基于空间溢出效应与衰减边界的视角

汤慧敏, 刘辉   

  1. (湖南农业大学经济学院,长沙市,410128)
  • 出版日期:2025-07-15 发布日期:2025-07-02
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金项目(24BJY165);湖南省自然科学基金项目(2023JJ30312);湖南省社会科学基金项目(21YBA079)

 Impact of agricultural technological progress on agricultural carbon emissions: A spatial spillover and attenuation boundary perspective

Tang Huimin, Liu Hui   

  1. (College of Economics, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha, 410128, China)

  • Online:2025-07-15 Published:2025-07-02

摘要: 农业低碳发展对中国达成“双碳”目标至关重要,其中农业技术进步是关键驱动力。基于2005—2023年中国30省面板数据,采用空间杜宾模型分析农业技术进步对农业碳排放的空间溢出效应及衰减边界,并探讨其内在机制与区域差异。结果表明:中国省域农业碳排放强度呈现显著的空间集聚特征,即“高—高”与“低—低”集聚;农业技术进步不仅能降低本地农业碳排放强度,还通过空间溢出效应促进邻近地区减排;农业前沿技术进步与农业综合技术效率均对本地及邻近地区农业碳减排有积极影响,但前者起主导作用;农业技术进步对农业碳排放强度的影响存在区域异质性,东部地区直接减排效果显著但空间溢出效应微弱,中西部地区虽呈现空间负相关性,但农业技术进步在推动碳减排上作用不显著;空间溢出效应随距离增加呈“倒U形”变化,400 km范围内逐渐增强,在400~700 km范围内显著减弱,超出700 km则不再显著。因此,要持续强化农业科技研发与推广,消除技术扩散障碍,优化技术布局与资源配置,实施差异化减排策略。

关键词: 农业技术进步, 农业碳排放, 空间溢出效应, 空间衰减边界

Abstract: Low-carbon development of agriculture is essential for China to achieve its “dual carbon” goal, with technological progress in agriculture serving as a critical driving force. Using panel data from 30 provinces in China spanning from 2005 to 2023, this study employed a spatial Durbin model to examine the spatial spillover effects and attenuation boundaries of agricultural technological progress on carbon emissions in agriculture.It also explored the underlying mechanisms and regional disparities in these effects. The findings indicate that provincial agricultural carbon emission intensity in China exhibits clear spatial agglomeration patterns, characterized by “high-high” and “low-low” clusters. Technological advancements in agriculture not only reduce local carbon emission intensity but also contribute to emission reductions in neighboring regions through spatial spillover effects. Both frontier agricultural technological innovation and overall technical efficiency positively impact carbon emission reduction in local and adjacent areas, with frontier innovation playing the dominant role. However, the effect of technological progress varies significantly across regions. In the eastern provinces, the direct emission-reducing effect is pronounced, but the spatial spillover effect is relatively weak. Conversely, in the central and western regions, although a negative spatial correlation exists, the impact of agricultural technology on emission reduction is not statistically significant. The spatial spillover effect followed an inverted U-shaped pattern with the increase of distance, which gradually increased within the range of 400 km, weakened significantly between 400 and 700 km, and became negligible beyond 700 km. These results highlight the need to strengthen research,development, and the widespread adoption of agricultural technologies, eliminate barriers to technology diffusion, optimize the spatial allocation of technological and resource inputs, and implement region-specific emission reduction strategies to effectively promote low-carbon development across Chinas agricultural sector.

Key words:  , agricultural technological progress, agricultural carbon emissions, spatial spillover effect, spatial attenuation boundary

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