智能化技术采纳对农业生产节本增效的影响研究——以新疆棉田无人机应用为例

doi:10.13733/j.jcam.issn.2095-5553.2025.01.045

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 农业智能化技术是一种能够实现高效集约和可持续发展的现代农业生产方式。为考察农户智能化技术行为采纳规律及行为效应，以植保无人机技术为例，运用内生转换回归模型对新疆五个棉花主产区401份农户调查数据进行分析，考察农户采纳植保无人机技术的影响因素，并在反事实框架下估计农户采纳行为的产出效应和成本效应。研究结果表明：调查区域农户植保无人机技术采用率为711%，植保无人机技术采纳比例较高；农户采纳植保无人机技术主要受农户的受教育程度、外出务工人数、植棉面积、是否参加棉花保险、对植保无人机技术的认知以及是否认识农技服务人员等因素的影响；植保无人机技术的采纳可以促进节本增效，在反事实假设下表现为：实际采纳技术若未采纳，其棉花每公顷产量下降1.970%、棉花每公顷植保成本上涨1.452%；实际未采纳技术若采纳，其棉花产量上涨2.514%、棉花植保成本下降1.393%；进一步分析表明：农户采纳植保无人机技术行为效应具有群组差异，决策者受教育程度越低，其技术采纳行为的产出效应和成本效应越好。因此需要进一步加强政策引导和资金投入；强化技术推广宣传，建立完善技术培训体系；发挥技术示范带动作用，显化技术效益。

关键词: 植保无人机技术, 智能化技术, 技术采纳, 行为效应, 内生转换回归

Abstract: Agricultural intelligent technology is a modern agricultural production mode to achieve more efficient, intensive and sustainable development. In order to investigate the adoption rules and behavioral effects of farmers' intelligent technology behavior, this paper takes the plant protection UAV technology as an example, and uses the endogenous transformation regression model to analyze the survey data of 401 farmers in five main cotton producing areas in Xinjiang. The influencing factors of farmers' adoption of plant protection UAV technology are investigated, and the output effect and cost effect of farmers' adoption behavior are estimated under the counterfactual framework. The results show that the adoption rate of plant protection UAV technology by farmers in the survey area is 71.1%, and the adoption rate of plant protection UAV technology is higher. Farmers' adoption of plant protection UAV technology is mainly affected by farmers' education level, number of migrant workers, cotton planting area, whether to participate in cotton insurance, cognition of plant protection UAV technology and whether to know agricultural technology service personnel. The adoption of plant protection UAV technology can promote cost saving and efficiency increase. Under the counterfactual hypothesis, if the actual adoption technology is not adopted, the cotton yield per hectare will decrease by 1.970% and the cotton plant protection cost per hectare will increase by 1.452%. If the actual unadopted technology was adopted, the cotton yield increased by 2.514% and the cotton plant protection cost decreased by 1.393%. Further analysis shows that there are group differences in the effect of farmers' adoption of plant protection UAV technology. The lower the education level of decision makers, the better the output effect and cost effect of their technology adoption behavior, and the output effect of farmers adopting technology in the group with low labor force is better. Therefore, it is necessary to further strengthen policy guidance and capital investment, strengthen technology promotion and publicity, establish and improve the technical training system, play a leading role in technology demonstration, manifesting technical benefits.

Key words: plant protection UAV technology； intelligent technology, technology adoption, behavior effect, endogenous transformation regression

中图分类号:

孙旭, 陈玉兰, 赵达君, 肖彤. 智能化技术采纳对农业生产节本增效的影响研究——以新疆棉田无人机应用为例[J]. 中国农机化学报, 2025, 46(1): 314-322.

Sun Xu, Chen Yulan, Zhao Dajun, Xiao Tong. Research on the influence of intelligent technology adoption on cost-saving and efficiency-increasing in agricultural production: Taking the application of UAV in Xinjiang cotton field as an example#br#[J]. Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization, 2025, 46(1): 314-322.

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