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中国农机化学报

中国农机化学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (5): 272-278.DOI: 10.13733/j.jcam.issn.2095-5553.2024.05.041

• 农业机械化综合研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

我国粮食主产区粮食体系韧性评价与障碍因素分析

张梅,郝迎滨,张涵野   

  • 出版日期:2024-05-15 发布日期:2024-05-22
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金一般项目(21BJY249,23BJY187)

Evaluation of grain system resilience and analysis of obstacle factors in main grain producing regions in China

Zhang Mei, Hao Yingbin, Zhang Hanye   

  • Online:2024-05-15 Published:2024-05-22

摘要: 建设有韧性的粮食体系对全面提升我国粮食安全水平具有重大意义。基于“压力—状态—响应”模型构建粮食体系韧性的指标体系,采用熵权法进行综合评价,并结合障碍度模型对障碍因子进行诊断。结果表明:2010—2020年,粮食主产区各省的粮食体系韧性水平呈现上升趋势,其中各省的平均压力值逐渐降低,平均状态值先增加后降低,平均响应值逐渐增加;压力准则层障碍度最高,成为影响粮食主产区韧性提升的主要因素;自然灾害直接经济损失、单位播种面积化肥施用量、公有经济企事业单位农业技术人员数、人均耕地面积是提升粮食主产区粮食体系韧性水平的主要障碍因子。因此,为提升粮食体系韧性,应建立健全粮食主产区粮食体系的应急机制、协调机制和长效机制。

关键词: 粮食体系韧性, 粮食安全, 压力—状态—响应模型, 障碍度模型, 粮食主产区

Abstract: Building a resilient agricultural food system is of great significance to comprehensively improve the  food security level in China. The index system of grain system resilience is constructed based on the “pressurestateresponse” model. The entropy weight method is used to comprehensively evaluate the grain system resilience of the main grain producing regions, and the barrier factors are diagnosed with the barrier degree model. The results show that from 2010 to 2020, the resilience level of the grain system of the provinces in the main grain producing regions presents  an upward trend, in which the average pressure value of the provinces gradually  decreases, the average state value first  increases and then  decreases, and the average response value gradually  increases. The pressure criterion layer has the highest barrier, and the pressure will also become the main factor affecting the resilience improvement of the main grain producing areas. The direct economic loss caused by natural disasters, fertilizer application amount per unit sown area, number of agricultural technicians of public economic enterprises and institutions, and per capita cultivated land area are the main obstacles to improve the resilience of the grain system in the main grain producing areas. Therefore, in order to improve the resilience of the food system, we should the emergency mechanism, coordination mechanism and longterm mechanism of the food system in the main food producing areas should be constantly established and improved.

Key words: resilience of food system, food security, pressurestateresponse model, obstacle model, main grain producing areas

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