劳动力转移对粮食生产韧性的影响研究——基于中国粮食主产区的实证

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 粮食安全是“国之大者”，随着农业劳动力大量转移，粮食生产韧性是否受到影响及受到的影响有多大，已成为新时期的重要议题。基于中国粮食主产区2010—2022年省域面板数据，通过构建主产区粮食生产韧性的综合指标体系，首先使用熵权与变异系数综合赋权法对其进行测度，其次选用固定效应模型实证检验农业劳动力转移对粮食生产韧性影响的内在逻辑。研究发现：农业劳动力转移有助于主产区粮食生产韧性的提升，且对粮食生产韧性的促进效应在较长时间序列上均稳健成立。具体而言，农业劳动力转移每增加1%，主产区粮食生产韧性水平将会平均增加1.712 0%。研究还发现，北方和南方主产区农业劳动力转移影响粮食生产韧性水平存在明显异质性，北方主产区的提升作用更为显著。因此，进一步引导农业劳动力非农转移推动区域粮食生产韧性水平提升，是新时期保障我国粮食安全的有效途径。

关键词: 粮食主产区, 劳动力转移, 粮食生产韧性, 粮食安全

Abstract: Food security is "the biggest of the country", with the large transfer of agricultural labor force, whether the resilience of food production is affected and how much it is affected has become an important issue in the new era. Based on the provincial panel data of China's major grain-producing areas from 2010 to 2022, this paper constructs a comprehensive index system of grain production resilience in major grain-producing areas. Firstly, entropy weight and coefficient of variation are used to measure it. Secondly, a fixed-effect model is used to empirically test the internal logic of the impact of agricultural labor transfer on grain production resilience. The results show that the transfer of agricultural labor contributes to the improvement of the resilience of grain production in the main producing areas, and the promoting effect on the resilience of grain production is stable in a long time series. Specifically, for every 1% increase in agricultural labor transfer, the resilience level of grain production in the main production areas will increase by an average of 1.712 0%. The study also found that there was significant heterogeneity between the northern and southern major producing areas, and the northern major producing areas had a more significant effect on the resilience of grain production. Therefore, it is an effective way to ensure China's food security in the new era by further guiding the non-agricultural transfer of agricultural labor and promoting the improvement of the resilience level of regional grain production.

Key words: major grain producing areas, transfer of labor force, toughness of grain production, food security

中图分类号:

蔡林军, 文春晖.

劳动力转移对粮食生产韧性的影响研究——基于中国粮食主产区的实证 [J]. 中国农机化学报.

Cai Linjun, Wen Chunhui.

Study on the influence of labor transfer on the resilience of food production based on the evidence of major grain producing areas in China [J]. Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization.

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