基于AHP—Fuzzy的农村承包经营土地托管风险评价

doi:10.13733/j.jcam.issn.2095⁃5553.2022.03.024

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为保证土地托管可持续良性发展，推动农业规模化经营，促进农业现代化发展，以新疆玛纳斯县为样本总体，基于236份问卷调查数据，运用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法构建风险评估模型，分别对各项指标权重、评价因素及样本区总的风险值进行计算与分析。结果表明：玛纳斯县农村承包经营土地托管的综合风险值为52.85，风险等级处于中间位置，说明进行土地托管的农户其风险承受力较强，对于风险承受力低的农户不建议将承包经营的土地进行托管。土地托管各类风险水平具有差异性，其中，市场风险是玛纳斯县农村承包经营土地托管过程中最易发生的风险，其次依次是自然风险、经营风险、财务风险、政策风险和契约风险。农产品市场价波动、利益分配、风险预防和监督机制是影响土地托管风险的重要因素，应作为农户选择土地托管组织时的重要衡量指标。

关键词: 土地托管, 风险评估, 模糊综合评价法, 层次分析法, 新疆玛纳斯县

Abstract: In order to ensure the sustainable and sound development of land trusteeship, promote the large⁃scale operation of agriculture, and promote the development of agricultural modernization, Manas County in Xinjiang was taken as the sample population, and the evaluation was based on survey data collected from 236 questionnaires. Analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method were then used to construct a risk assessment model whereby the weights of various indicators, evaluation factors, and the total risk value of the sample area were calculated and compared. The results showed that the comprehensive risk value of the trusteeship of rural contracted management land in Manas County was 52.85, and the risk level was in the middle position which indicated that it was more suitable for farmers with strong risk tolerance. However, it was not recommended to trust the contracted land for farmers with low risk tolerance. The various risk levels of land trusteeship were different. Among them, market risk was the risk most likely to occur in the process of land trusteeship for rural contracted management, followed by natural risk, business risk, financial risk, policy risk, and contract risk. Fluctuation of agricultural product market price, benefit distribution, risk prevention, and supervision mechanism are important factors affecting land trusteeship risk, and should be used as an important measurement index when farmers choose land trusteeship organization.

Key words: land trusteeship, risk assessment, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, analytic hierarchy process, Manas County in
Xinjiang

中图分类号:

F325.2

陈欣, 林彤, 刘新平, 王晓莹. 基于AHP—Fuzzy的农村承包经营土地托管风险评价[J]. 中国农机化学报, 2022, 43(3): 178-184.

Chen Xin, Lin Tong, Liu Xinping, Wang Xiaoying. . Risk evaluation of land trusteeship for rural contractual management based on AHP-Fuzzy: Case study of Manas County in Xinjiang[J]. Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization, 2022, 43(3): 178-184.

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