基于灰色关联分析的我国农业保险研究

doi:10.13733/j.jcam.issn.20955553.2022.02.027

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 农业保险作为分散农业风险、保障农业生产的有效手段，其发展至关重要。基于2009—2019年我国农业保险的相关数据，选取农业保险保费收入、农业保险赔款及给付、农业从业人员人均农业保险费额3个特征序列指标，利用灰色关联分析方法研究农业保险发展的影响因素，对主要影响因素进行排序。结果表明：不管是对于农业保险保费收入、农业保险赔款及给付还是农业从业人员人均农业保险费额，政府农林水财政支出都是最主要影响因素，其灰色关联度排在第1位。二三产业产值、GDP对农业保险的灰色关联度分别排在第2、3位，它们对农业保险的影响主要体现在农民的收入水平。林业产值、渔业产值、农业产值、农林牧渔业产值、牧业产值对农业保险均有一定影响，但影响不是很大。

关键词: 农业保险, 农业保险保费收入, 政府财政支出, 二三产业产值, 灰色关联分析

Abstract: As an effective means of dispersing agricultural risks and ensuring agricultural production, the development of agricultural insurance is very important. Based on the relevant data of Chinas agricultural insurance from 2009 to 2019, this paper selects three characteristic series indicators: agricultural insurance premium income, agricultural insurance compensation and payment, and per capita agricultural insurance premium of agricultural employees, and uses the grey correlation analysis method to study the influencing factors of the development of agricultural insurance, and ranks the main influencing factors. The results show that the government fiscal expenditure on agriculture, forestry, and water resources are the most important influencing factors for agricultural insurance. The output value of secondary and tertiary industries and GDP also have a great impact on agricultural insurance, which is mainly reflected in the income level of farmers. The output value of forestry, fishery, agriculture, and animal husbandry does not have a great impact on agricultural insurance.

Key words: agricultural insurance, agricultural insurance premium income;government expenditure, output value of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry, grey relation analysis

中图分类号:

F842.6

韩珂, 郭峰町. 基于灰色关联分析的我国农业保险研究[J]. 中国农机化学报, 2022, 43(2): 196-204.

Han Ke, Guo Fengting.. Research on Chinas agricultural insurance based on grey relation analysis[J]. Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization, 2022, 43(2): 196-204.

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