关键词: 农业机械化, 能源碳排放, STIRPAT模型, 影响因素, 节能减排

Abstract: As a traditional industrial and agricultural province, in order to identify the main factors affecting carbon emissions in Liaoning province under the background of continuous adjustment of energy structure and gradual improvement of agricultural mechanization level, the main energy consumption carbon emission was calculated based on the energy consumption data of 2012—2021. Then, the estimation model of energy consumption carbon emission was constructed by STIRPAT model, and the main reasons affecting the carbon emissions of energy consumption were analyzed. The result showed that coal was still the most important energy source consumed in Liaoning province, accounting for about 55% of the total energy consumption. The total carbon emissions of energy consumption showed a significant increasing trend. However, the carbon emission intensity tends to decline. The total amount decreased by 11.3 kt CO2/100 million yuan in 10 years. Nine factors, including the output value of the secondary industry, the agricultural carbon emission efficiency, the agricultural economic development level, the output value of the primary industry, the population, the per capita GDP, the urbanization rate, the agricultural mechanization degree, and the energy processing and conversion efficiency, mainly affected the carbon emission. A carbon emission prediction model based on STIRPAT was constructed with an average relative error -4.91%, which indicated a good accuracy. From the model, population change had negative effects on the total energy carbon emission, however, Per capita GDP, the output value of the secondary industry, the agricultural economic development level, and the degree of agricultural mechanization had a positive impact. Therefore, in order to restrain the rapid increase of energy carbon emissions in Liaoning Province, it is necessary to control the population, optimize the industrial structure, keep the per capita GDP growth rate, the output value of the secondary industry and the degree of agricultural mechanization at a reasonable level.

Key words: agricultural mechanization, energy carbon emissions, STIRPAT model, influencing factors, energy saving and emission reduction