关键词: 棉花, 绿色全要素生产率, 目标价格, 投入产出数据, MalmquistTobit模型

Abstract: Total factor productivity is an important indicator to measure the economic growth of cotton, and green total factor productivity determines the sustainable development of cotton industry. Based on the inputoutput data of cotton in 12 major cotton producing provinces in China, the Malmquist index of green total factor productivity of cotton was calculated and decomposed. The Tobit model was used to estimate the effects of core variables of cotton target price policy and regional economic development level, cotton income per hectare, cotton industry aggregation degree and regional environmental investment on green total factor productivity of cotton. The research shows that Chinas green total factor productivity of cotton is 1.02, the highest green total factor productivity in Anhui is 1.92, and the lowest green total factor productivity in Hunan is 0.91. Target price policy has no significant indigenous effect on cotton green total factor productivity, while regional economic development level, cotton earnings per hectare, cotton industrial agglomeration degree and regional environmental investment intensity have significant indigenous positive effects on cotton green total factor productivity.

Key words: cotton, green total factor productivity, target price, inputoutput data, MalmquistTobit model