关键词: 农业机械化, 农村人口老龄化, 农业劳动力, 替代能力, 时间演绎

Abstract:  From the perspective of rural population aging, this article examines whether agricultural machinery has a substitutive effect on agricultural labor force. To determine whether there is a current shortage of agricultural labor in China, predict the future level of agricultural mechanization in China, and attempt to answer the question “Can agricultural mechanization solve the problem of agricultural labor shortage?”. Based on the provincial panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2004 to 2020, from the perspective of the substitution ability of agricultural machinery for agricultural labor force, this paper uses the interactive fixed effect model to propose an estimation method to measure the substitution ability of agricultural machinery. The empirical results show that the substitution ability of agricultural machinery for agricultural labor force in China is as follows: 10000 kilowatt agricultural machinery can replace about 1169-1239 agricultural labor force every year. After that, the number of agricultural surplus labor force and the level of agricultural mechanization in China are predicted by the classical economic calculation method, time deductive reasoning method and ARIMA prediction model. The results show that the total power level of agricultural machinery in China is increasing at a rate of approximately 24946630 kilowatts per year. By 2035, the total power of agricultural machinery in China will increase by 374 199 450 kilowatts. The growth of agricultural mechanization can make up for the shortage of agricultural labor caused by population aging.

Key words: agricultural mechanization, rural population aging, agricultural labor force, substitution capacity, temporal deduction