关键词: 贸易便利化, 农产品贸易, 贸易持续时间, 生存分析, 离散时间模型

Abstract: This article calculates the trade facilitation level of SCO countries, uses KM nonparametric analysis method to explore the basic characteristics of the survival time of Chinese agricultural products exported to SCO countries, and uses Cloglog discretetime model to explore the impact of the level of trade facilitation on the duration of Chinese agricultural products exported to SCO countries. The study shows that the overall level of trade facilitation in the SCO countries is on the rise, but the level of trade facilitation varies greatly among different countries. The trade duration of Chinas agricultural products for export to the SCO countries is relatively short, with a “threshold effect” and a negative timedependent feature. The survival rate of the fifth agricultural products is higher than that of the other four agricultural products. The improvement of trade facilitation level is conducive to the stability and sustainability of  trade relations between China and SCO countries.The improvement of the level of trade facilitation will reduce the transaction cost of import and export.The reduction of trade costs will increase the enthusiasm of importers and exporters to trade, thus expanding trade volume, and the increase in trade volume will make trade relations more stable.

Key words: trade facilitation, agricultural product trade, trade duration, survival analysis, discretetime model