关键词: “一带一路”, 中国, 非洲, 农产品贸易网络, 社会网络分析法, QAP回归分析法

Abstract: Agricultural trade is an important part of ChinaAfrica economic and trade cooperation. Based on the trade data of ChinaAfrica agricultural products from 2001 to 2018, by analyzing the overall pattern of ChinaAfrica agricultural products trade, with the help of social network analysis method, the network pattern of ChinaAfrica agricultural products trade is described from the two dimensions of network centrality and network connection strength.The influencing factors were also analyzed using the quadratic assignment procedure (QAP) method, which can help to establish the structural relationship of ChinaAfrica agricultural products trade, thereby promoting the development of bilateral agricultural trade. The results show that the ChinaAfrican agricultural trade network is a gradual evolution process. It was more pronounced than ever since 2009 until 2018. The density of the agricultural product trade network in China and ten countries showed a fluctuating upward trend. It was more obvious that since the “One Belt and One Road” initiative was proposed. The density of trade networks has increased significantly, and the average density has remained above 0.6. From the trend of trade centralization and the evolution of trade network patterns, it can be seen that the trend of agricultural trade centralization between China and ten African countries is at a medium level. The development of agricultural trade between China and major countries is relatively balanced, and there is no phenomenon that individual countries monopolize the trade status of agricultural products. The relative degree central potential index (NC) of agricultural trade is 0.493. Although there is a noticeable gap in trade between countries in agricultural products trade, the core edge structure of the overall network is relatively stable, and there are many core countries. Through QAP regression analysis, it is found that the economic development level and market scale of trading countries are 0.556 and 0.076, respectively, which effectively promote the development of agricultural trade. The factors of geographical distance and institutional distance are -0.782 and -0.103, respectively, which inhibit the development of agricultural trade. Finally, it puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to promote the healthy development of ChinaAfrica agricultural trade cooperation from different angles of China and African countries.

Key words: “One Belt and One Road”, China, Africa, agricultural trade network, social network analysis, QAP regression analysis