关键词: 水稻播种面积, 江西省, 城乡收入差距, 农业机械化, 协整分析

Abstract: To explore the long⁃term equilibrium relationship between rice sowing area, agricultural mechanization, and urban and rural income gap, as well as to provide counter measures for stabilizing rice sowing area and ensuring grain production in Jiangxi Province, a vector error correction model was constructed. Data on rice sowing area, total power of agricultural machinery, and urban and rural income gap in Jiangxi Province from 1979-2018 was analysed using the Statistical Yearbook of Jiangxi Province as well as the China Rural Statistical Yearbook. Additionally, further impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis were conducted. It was found that there was a long⁃term equilibrium relationship between rice sowing areas, agricultural mechanization, and urban and rural income gap. Increase in agricultural mechanization had a positive effect on rice sowing area, whereby for every 1% increase in agricultural mechanization, rice sowing area increased by 0.003%. However, incease in urban and rural income ratio had a negative effect, such that for every 1% increase in urban and rural income ratio, rice sowing area decreased by 0.755%. It was found that the level of agricultural mechanization in Jiangxi Province could befurther expanded by improving the agricultural machinery subsidization policy through out the entire industrial chain of agricultural production and improving training on agricultural machinery operation. The rural infrastructure can be improved by increasing the financial investment in supporting agriculture, developing rural enterprises with characteristics and highlights, and cultivating “native”experts in accordance with local conditions. This will help to make up for the shortcomings of rural development so as to reduce the income gap between urban and rural areas effectively.

Key words: rice sowing area, Jiangxi Province, urban and rural income gap, agricultural mechanization, co?integration analysis