关键词: 塔里木河流域, 农业社会化服务, 农业面源污染, 线性多元回归法, 倾向值得分匹配法

Abstract:  In the context of green transformation of economic and social development in general, the impact of agricultural socialized services on agricultural non‑point source pollution is explored, aiming  to achieve pollution reduction and carbon reduction while providing strong support for improving the agricultural socialized service system. Based on the survey data of 360 cotton farmers in 5 prefectures and 7 counties in the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang, the paper examines the effect of socialized agricultural services on agricultural non‑point source pollution through ordinary least squares and propensity score matching methods, and further applies to the inverse probability weighting method to conduct an empirical test on the relationship between the degree of agricultural socialized services and the amount of agricultural non‑point source pollution emissions. Empirical results show that different types of agricultural socialized services have different impacts on agricultural non‑point source pollution. Among them, agricultural technical services and machinery services have a significant inhibitory effect on agricultural non‑point source pollution, which reduce the cost of agricultural inputs by about 1 070 yuan and 1 170 yuan per hectare for farmers, respectively, while insurance services exist a positive effect. Among the control variables, the farming years of farmers, the proportion of non‑agricultural labor in households and the scale of cotton planting have a significant positive effect on agricultural non‑point source pollution, while soil fertility has a negative effect. The higher the degree of adoption of agricultural socialized services, the lower the degree of agricultural non‑point source pollution emissions, and the synergy of agricultural machinery services and agricultural technology services can further reduce agricultural non‑point source pollution, compared with the adoption of machinery services or technical services only, the cost of agricultural inputs for farmers who purchase the two services is reduced by about 640 yuan and 800 yuan, respectively. Accordingly, it is proposed to actively promote the participation of all parties in the comprehensive management of environmental pollution and improve the collaboration and co‑management mechanism of environmental pollution prevention and control, strengthen agricultural science and technology investment, and develop advanced technologies for prevention and control of agricultural non‑point source pollution, grasp the farmers’ demand for differentiation, and provide countermeasures and suggestions for targeted agricultural socialized services.

Key words: Tarim River Basin, agricultural socialized services, agricultural non?point source pollution, OLS estimation method, propensity score matching method