关键词: 城镇化, 农业劳动生产率, 城乡融合发展, PVAR

Abstract: According to Lewis dual economic theory, the improvement of urbanization level is conducive to promoting the growth of agricultural labor productivity and realizing the integrated development of urban and rural areas. Taking counties in Jilin Province as samples, using the data of 39 counties in Jilin Province from 2004 to 2019 in the “Jilin Statistical Yearbook”, a panel data vector autoregression model (PVAR) was constructed, and the Granger causality test was used to verify the level of urbanization, agricultural Granger causality between labor productivity and urbanrural integration development, and predicts the longterm dynamic relationship of each variable through impulse response function and variance decomposition. The results found a significant correlation between urbanization level, agricultural labor productivity, and urbanrural integration development. In a short period of time, the positive impact of agricultural labor productivity can positively promote urbanrural integration development. The positive impact of the level of industrialization can have a positive effect on agricultural labor productivity and a negative effect on the integrated development of urban and rural areas. In the next 1, 5 and 10 periods, the impact from agricultural labor productivity, population urbanization level and industrial urbanization level will contribute 7.05%, 6.79%, and 6.82% to the development of urbanrural integration; 2.38%, 2.19%, 2.20% and 4.39%, 6.80%, 6.86%, the impact of the three variables on the development of urbanrural integration is not strong, and there is no obvious growth trend with time.

Key words: urbanization, agricultural labor productivity, urbanrural integrated development, PVAR