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中国农机化学报

中国农机化学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (11): 250-257.DOI: 10.13733/j.jcam.issn.2095-5553.2023.11.035

• 农业机械化综合研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

西部地区“水—能源—粮食”系统安全评价及障碍因子识别研究

郝雪纯,王志强,李莉,万翼,魏鹏   

  • 出版日期:2023-11-15 发布日期:2023-12-07
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(72164035);新疆农业大学研究生科研创新计划项目资助(XJAUGRI2022012);2022年自治区高校基本科研业务费科研项目(XJEDU2022J005)

Study on security evaluation and obstacle factor identification of “Water-Energy-Food” system in western China

Hao Xuechun, Wang Zhiqiang, Li Li, Wan Yi, Wei Peng   

  • Online:2023-11-15 Published:2023-12-07

摘要: 2011年世界经济论坛将世界缺乏对“水—能源—粮食”纽带关系的理解视为全球经济所面临的重大挑战。以2012—2021年为时间线,采用熵权-TOPSIS模型评估西部地区11个省(自治区、直辖市)“水—能源—粮食”系统安全水平,并运用“障碍度”模型对各地区障碍因子进行识别研究,探讨影响系统安全水平的障碍因素。结果表明:目前,7个地区的安全水平在2017年后呈现不断上升的状态,通过各省安全水平平均数值可知,研究期内西部地区最安全的省份为内蒙古,陕西、新疆次之,四川、广西、青海分别为第四、五、六名,云南、宁夏、甘肃、贵州、重庆依次排在后五位;通过障碍因子识别结果可以看出,云南、宁夏的障碍因子平均分布在水资源安全、能源安全和粮食安全相关的指标上,广西、重庆、四川和新疆的障碍因子主要以水资源安全为主,贵州的障碍因子主要集中在能源安全方面,内蒙古、陕西、甘肃、青海的则以粮食安全为主。因此,针对各地区不同资源特点及系统安全水平,不同地区应因地制宜,及时调整相关机制,扬长避短,进一步提升“水—能源—粮食”系统安全水平。

关键词: 西部地区, “水—能源—粮食”系统, 安全评价, 障碍因子

Abstract: In 2011, the World Economic Forum identified the worlds lack of understanding of the Water-Energy-Food nexus as a major challenge facing the global economy. Taking 2012—2021 as the time line, Entropy WeightTOPSIS was used to evaluate the security level of the “Water-Energy-Food” system in 11 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) in western China, and the “Obstacle degree” model was used to identify the obstacle factors in each region and explore the obstacle factors affecting the system security level. The results show that the safety level of the seven regions at present has been on the rise since 2017. According to the average value of the safety level of the provinces, Neimenggu is the safest province in the western region during the study period, followed by Shaanxi and Xinjiang, Sichuan, Guangxi and Qinghai ranked fourth, fifth and sixth respectively, and Yunnan, Ningxia, Gansu, Guizhou and Chongqing ranked the last five in turn. According to the results of obstacle factor identification, the obstacle factors in Yunnan and Ningxia are evenly distributed in the indicators related to water resource security, energy security and food security; the obstacle factors in Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan and Xinjiang are mainly water resource security; the obstacle factors in Guizhou are mainly energy security; and the obstacle factors in Neimenggu, Shaanxi, Gansu and Qinghai are mainly food security. Therefore, according to the different resource characteristics and system security levels in different regions, different regions should adjust the relevant mechanisms in a timely manner, promote strengths and avoid weaknesses, and further improve the security level of the “Water-Energy-Food” system.

Key words: the western region, “Water-Energy-Food” system, safety evaluation, obstacle factor

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