轮式拖拉机可靠性评价及剩余寿命预测

doi:10.13733/j.jcam.issn.2095-5553.2023.11.012

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为提高拖拉机的可靠性，减少维修次数，运用可靠性分析理论对其使用寿命进行分析研究。首先对某型号轮式拖拉机进行750 h的现场使用跟踪试验，将收集到的故障时间数据分析整理，采用二参数威布尔分布对其进行建模，然后利用四分段距法筛选有效数据，使用最小二乘法和极大似然估计法进行模型参数求解，选取最优的参数求解方法，最后采用K-S检验法对威布尔分布模型进行检验。结果表明，拖拉机的故障时间服从二参数威布尔分布。通过模型计算得到拖拉机的平均无故障工作时间为317.78 h，中位寿命为451.28 h，特征寿命为513.45 h，随后以A、B、C、D四台拖拉机为例，进行剩余寿命预测，得到使用时间和剩余寿命之间具体的对应关系，从而对拖拉机制定合理的预防性维修周期。

关键词: 轮式拖拉机, 可靠性, 威布尔分布, 极大似然估计, K-S检验, 剩余寿命预测

Abstract: In order to improve the reliability of the tractor and reduce the maintenance times, the service life of the tractor is analyzed and researched using the reliability analysis theory. Firstly, a 750 h field usage tracking experiment of a certain type of wheeled tractor is carried out, the collected failure time data is analyzed and sorted, and the twoparameter Weibull distribution is used to model it. Then, using interquartile range method to screen effective data, the least squares method and the maximum likelihood estimation method are used to solve the model parameters, and the optimal parameter solving method is selected. Finally, the K-S test method is used to test the Weibull distribution model. The results show that the failure time of the tractor obeys a twoparameter Weibull distribution. Through the model calculation, the average troublefree working time of the tractor is 317.78 h, the median life is 451.28 h, and the characteristic life is 513.45 h. Then, taking the four tractors A, B, C, and D as examples, the remaining life prediction is carried out, and the specific corresponding relationship between the service time and the remaining life is obtained, so as to formulate a reasonable preventive maintenance cycle for the tractors.

Key words: wheeled tractor, reliability, Weibull distribution, maximum likelihood estimation, K-S test, remaining life prediction

中图分类号:

S232.5

文昌俊, , 邵明颖, , 何永豪, , 陈凡, , 陈洋洋, . 轮式拖拉机可靠性评价及剩余寿命预测[J]. 中国农机化学报, 2023, 44(11): 73-78.

Wen Changjun, , Shao Mingying, , He Yonghao, , Chen Fan, , Chen Yangyang, . Reliability evaluation and remaining life prediction of wheeled tractors[J]. Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization, 2023, 44(11): 73-78.

参考文献

［1］　白学峰, 马立新, 乔璐, 等. 国内外农用拖拉机先进技术研究及对比分析［J］. 中国农机化学报, 2019, 40(9): 200-205.
Bai Xuefeng, Ma Lixin, Qiao Lu, et al. Research and comparative analysis of advanced technology of agricultural tractors at home and abroad ［J］. Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization, 2019, 40(9): 200-205.
［2］　Kim W S, Kim Y J, Kim Y S, et al. Evaluation of the fatigue life of a tractors transmission spiral bevel gear ［J］. Journal of Terramechanics, 2021, 94(1): 13-22.
［3］　Martin C, Stanislav M. Theoretical analysis of the forces and torques acting on a tractor during ploughing ［J］. Journal of Terramechanics, 2021, 96: 23-27.
［4］　Li X, Chen W, Li F, et al. Reliability evaluation with limited and censored timetofailure data based on uncertainty distributions ［J］. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 2021, 94: 403-420.
［5］　张赛鹏, 冯世涛, 赵春明, 等. 基于威布尔分布和蒙特卡洛法的高压隔离开关可靠性研究［J］. 高压电器, 2021, 57(6): 86-93.
Zhang Saipeng, Feng Shitao, Zhao Chunming, et al. Study on reliability of high voltage disconnector based on Weibull distribution and Monte Carlo method ［J］. High Voltage Apparatus, 2021, 57(6): 86-93.
［6］　胡秀秀, 王守城, 李帅, 等. 地埋式垃圾压块机液压系统的可靠性分析［J］. 机床与液压, 2020, 48(11): 212-216.
Hu Xiuxiu, Wang Shoucheng, Li Shuai, et al. Reliability analysis of hydraulic system of buried garbage briquetting machine ［J］. Machine Tool & Hydraulics, 2020, 48(11): 212-216.
［7］　宋庭新, 韩国晨. 基于预防性维修的舰船装备等级修理决策系统研究［J］. 中国机械工程, 2022, 33(4): 496-503.
Song Tingxin, Han Guochen. Research and development for preventive maintenancebased ship grade repair decisionmaking systems ［J］. China Mechanical Engineering, 2022, 33(4): 496-503.
［8］　王海芳, 戴亚威, 汪澄, 等. 推钢机液压系统的设计与可靠性分析［J］. 机床与液压, 2016, 44(13): 179-190.
Wang Haifang, Dai Yawei, Wang Cheng, et al. Design and reliability analysis on hydraulic system of rolling pusher ［J］. Machine Tool & Hydraulics, 2016, 44(13): 179-190.
［9］　王艳芳, 敖长林. 基于混合威布尔分布拖拉机使用可靠性分析［J］. 东北农业大学学报, 2016, 47(3): 94-101.
Wang Yanfang, Ao Changlin. Analysis of tractor operational reliability based on mixed Weibull distribution ［J］. Journal of Northeast Agricultural University, 2016, 47(3): 94-101.
［10］　裴峻峰, 王丝雨, 任明晨, 等. 空冷器风机的可靠性研究［J］. 机械设计与制造, 2020(8): 215-219.
Pei Junfeng, Wang Siyu, Ren Mingchen, et al. Research on reliability of air cooler fan ［J］. Machinery Design & Manufacture, 2020(8): 215-219.
［11］　Zhao Q, Jiang H, Chen B, et al. Research on state of health for the series battery module based on the Weibull distribution ［J］. Journal of The Electrochemical Society, 2022, 169(2): 20523-20526.
［12］　Ameen A A, Akkash U A. Maximum likelihood estimation and bayesian estimation of threeparameter Weibull distribution based on intervalcensored data ［J］. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 2021, 1818(1): 12117-12199.
［13］　马仕川. 国产数控机床可靠性分析与评价方法研究［D］. 重庆: 重庆理工大学, 2019.
Ma Shichuan. Reliability analysis and evaluation method of domestic CNC machine tools ［D］. Chongqing: Chongqing University of Technology, 2019.
［14］　Rao X, Zhan W, Zhao H, et al. Application of the leastsquare meshless method to gaswater flow simulation of complexshape shale gas reservoirs ［J］. Engineering Analysis with Boundary Elements, 2021, 129(1): 39-54.
［15］　赵宇. 可靠性数据分析［M］. 北京: 国防工业出版社, 2011.
［16］　Xie X, Xu Z. Blind watermark detection based on K-S test in radiofrequency signals ［J］. Electronics Letters, 2020, 56(1): 30-32.
［17］　Yu S, Chi G, Jiang X. Credit rating system for small businesses using the K-S test to select an indicator system ［J］. Management Decision, 2018, 57(1): 229-247.
［18］　杨志远, 赵建民, 李俐莹, 等. 二元相关退化系统可靠性分析及剩余寿命预测［J］. 系统工程与电子技术, 2020, 42(11): 2662-2668.
Yang Zhiyuan, Zhao Jianmin, Li Liying, et al. Reliability analysis and residual life estimation of bivariate dependent degradation system ［J］. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2020, 42(11): 2662-2668.
［19］　侯恩广, 乔昕, 刘广敏. 动力锂电池剩余使用寿命的预测方法研究［J］. 电源技术, 2018, 42(10): 1486-1570.
Hou Enguang, Qiao Xin, Liu Guangmin. Remaining useful life prediction of power lithiumion battery ［J］. Chinese Journal of Power Sources, 2018, 42(10): 1486-1570.
［20］　缪吉昌, 纪晓宏, 王兆源, 等. 基于威布尔分布的婴儿培养箱关键部件的剩余寿命预测［J］. 中国医学物理学杂志, 2021, 38(9): 1162-1167.
Miao Jichang, Ji Xiaohong, Wang Zhaoyuan, et al. Estimation of the remaining useful life of critical component of infant incubator based on Weibull distribution ［J］. Chinese Journal of Medical Physics, 2021, 38(9): 1162-1167.

[1]	何琼, 李其晓. 我国农业机械可靠性演化分析[J]. 中国农机化学报, 2023, 44(8): 47-55.
[2]	孙延成;牟孝栋;王志伟;姜慧新;王志坚;耿端阳;. 构树收获机设计与试验[J]. 中国农机化学报, 2021, 42(7): 26-32+75.
[3]	苑晓亮, 谢守勇, 刘军, 谢秋菊, 宋磊, . 小型收割机切割器可靠性测试平台研究[J]. 中国农机化学报, 2021, 42(10): 15-21.
[4]	刘辉;刘声春;刘德普;. 能力验证在轮式拖拉机检测实验室中的应用与建议[J]. 中国农机化学报, 2019, 40(12): 125-129.