基于模糊事故树的农机事故影响因素分析

doi:10.13733/j.jcam.issn.20955553.2022.01.029

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为准确把握农机事故的风险程度，探究农机事故发生原因和规律，有效预防农机产品在工作过程中各种事故的发生。通过将事故树分析法与三角模糊理论相结合来构建模糊事故树模型，对造成农机事故的因素进行分析研究，结果如下：通过事故树分析推断出造成农机事故的已知原因和潜在原因共23个，求解出57个最小割集和3个最小径集；利用三角模糊理论对23个基本事件的发生概率进行模糊处理，得到其模糊概率值；对基本事件模糊重要度进行计算并排序，明确各基本事件对顶上事件的影响程度，其中机具无安全保护装置(X1)，人员未穿戴安全防护装备(X2)，工作时间过长(X16)，操纵装置不合理(X15)，超速超载(X7)排序靠前，表明这些因素对于引起农机事故发生的影响程度大，在进行事故预防措施制定时要优先考虑，依据优先次序原则制定预防对策，对于农机事故进行科学高效的预防。

关键词: 农机事故, 事故树分析法, 三角模糊数, 模糊事故树, 模糊重要度

Abstract: In order to estimate the risk degree of agricultural machinery accidents accurately, explore the causes and laws of agricultural machinery accidents, and prevent the occurrence of various accidents in the process of agricultural machinery products effectively, this study constructs a fuzzy fault tree model by combining the fault tree analysis method with the triangular fuzzy number and analyzes the factors which cause agricultural machinery accidents. The results showed that 23 known and potential causes of agricultural machinery accidents were deduced, and 57 minimum cut sets and 3 minimum path sets were solved through fault tree analysis. The probabilities of 23 basic events were fuzzed by triangular fuzzy number theory, and the fuzzy probability value of each basic event was obtained. Sorting the fuzzy importance of 23 basic events clarified the degree of influence of each basic event on the top event. Machine without safety protection device (X1), unprotected individuals (X2), long working hours (X16), flawed control device (X15), speeding and overloading (X7) were ranked first. It shows that these factors greatly impact the occurrence of agricultural machinery accidents. When formulating accident prevention measures, priority should be given to formulating preventive countermeasures to scientifically and efficiently prevent agricultural machinery accidents.

Key words: agricultural machinery accident, fault tree analysis method, triangular fuzzy number, fuzzy fault tree, fuzzy importance

中图分类号:

S220.1

武欣, 戚彬, 孙晓明, 李志合, 王宪良, 王飞. 基于模糊事故树的农机事故影响因素分析[J]. 中国农机化学报, 2022, 43(1): 211-218.

Wu Xin, Qi Bin, Sun Xiaoming, Li Zhihe, Wang Xianliang, Wang Fei.. Analysis of influencing factors of agricultural machinery accidents based on fuzzy fault tree[J]. Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization, 2022, 43(1): 211-218.

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