关键词: 进口潜力, 进口效率, 乳制品, 随机前沿引力模型, 进口安全

Abstract: Chinas import dependence on dairy products is increasing year by year, and the import risks are also increasing. Based on the perspective of unblocking the safe circulation trade of dairy products, using import data of dairy products between China and 12 countries from 2001 to 2020, this paper analyzed the import potential and import efficiency of Chinas dairy products using the timevarying random frontier gravity model. Additionally, the influencing factors and size of Chinas bilateral trade with many countries were explored as well as ways to disperse the import risk of dairy products in China from the perspective of dairy products import. The results showed that the efficiency of dairy products import in China and these 12 countries was 0.66 in 2020 such that there was little difference in trade efficiency among countries. Chinas population growth, GDP growth and population growth of exporting countries promoted the import of dairy products, and the distance factor hindered the import of dairy products. Also, improvement of logistics and infrastructure, improvement of economic freedom, and the signing of free trade agreements can improve trade efficiency. There was a certain import potential to be tapped, but the import expansion space was still limited. Finally, policy suggestions such as strengthening the construction of transportation and communication facilities, improving the trade environment to improve the degree of economic freedom, enhancing the coordinated development of regional integration, implementing the policy of “bringing in” and “going out”, developing diversified trade markets and improving the competitiveness of domestic dairy products were put forward.

Key words: import potential, import efficiency, dairy products, stochastic frontier gravity model, import safety