关键词: 新疆棉区, 农业社会化服务, 结构性供需失衡, 供需理论, 结构方程模型

Abstract:  As an organic link between small farmers and modern agriculture, agricultural socialization services plays an important role in promoting China's cotton production to high‑quality step forward and achieving the modernization of agriculture and rural areas. Based on the theory of supply and demand,  the theoretical analysis framework of structural imbalance between supply and demand of agricultural socialized services is constructed, combining with the survey data of farmers in the Xinjiang cotton region, factor analysis and structural equation model is adopted  to explore the influencing factors of structural imbalance between supply and demand of agricultural socialized service from the perspective of farmers. The results show that there is an imbalance between the supply subject and the service content, while the imbalance between the supply channel is not obvious. Farmers' endowment, supply evaluation and psychological demand all have a positive impact on the structural imbalance between supply and demand of agricultural socialized service. The order of influence degree from large to small is supply evaluation > farmers' endowment > psychological demand. The structural imbalance between the supply and demand of socialized services is significantly affected by factors such as ethnic groups, cotton region, planting scale, service evaluation and demand degree. Given this, this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions, such as always taking the service for agriculture as the core, establishing the mode of “Internet+peasant household+agricultural social service”, constructing the service supply chain of “whole process integration‑organization coordination‑sustainability”, and deepening the structural reform of agricultural social service.

Key words: Xinjiang cotton areas, agricultural socialized service, structural imbalance between supply and demand, theory of supply and demand, structure equation model