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中国农机化学报

中国农机化学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (2): 287-294.DOI: 10.13733/j.jcam.issn.2095‑5553.2025.02.042

• 农业水土工程 • 上一篇    下一篇

“双碳”目标下新疆耕地利用生态效率时空演变特征及原因分析

韩佳敏,孟梅   

  • 出版日期:2025-02-15 发布日期:2025-01-24
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(72164035)

 Analysis on characteristics and causes of spatial and temporal evolution of cropland utilization eco‑efficiency in Xinjiang under the “dual‑carbon” target

Han Jiamin, Meng Mei   

  • Online:2025-02-15 Published:2025-01-24

摘要: 以新疆作为研究区域,选择新疆的14个地州市作为样本点,从碳源和碳汇的视角构建指标体系,运用超效率DEA—SBM模型测度新疆耕地利用生态效率,并从时间和空间的角度进行分析,利用GML指数模型和核密度估计探究新疆耕地利用生态效率的动态演变特征,最后基于冗余率对耕地利用生态效率的损失原因进行分析。结果表明:新疆耕地利用生态效率的平均值是0.84,处于中等偏上的水平,呈现出“升—降—升”的趋势。2011—2020年,新疆MI指数均大于1,核密度的曲线中心出现向右平移的趋势,说明新疆耕地利用生态效率在不断提高,处于规模报酬递增的阶段。新疆耕地利用生态效率未达到相对有效地区的投入和非期望产出都存在一定的冗余,不合理的投入以及大量碳和污染的排放是造成耕地利用生态效率无效的主要原因。因此,提出加大农业科学技术的研发,完善基础设施的建设;调整生产要素的投入比例,提高耕地利用生态效率;促进区域协调发展,缩小地区差距等建议。

关键词: 新疆, 耕地利用, 生态效率, 超效率DEA—SBM模型, 时空演变

Abstract: Taking Xinjiang as the research region, fourteen prefectural and municipal cities in Xinjiang were selected as the sample sites, the indicator system was constructed from the perspective of carbon source and sink, the ecological efficiency of cropland utilisation in Xinjiang was measured by using the super‑efficiency DEA—SBM model and the analysis was conducted  from the perspectives of time and space, and then the dynamic evolution characteristics of ecological efficiency of cropland utilisation in Xinjiang was explored by using the GML index model and the kernel density estimation. Finally, the causes of the loss of ecological efficiency of cropland use were analyzed based on the redundancy rate. The results showed that the average value of the eco‑efficiency of cropland use in Xinjiang was 0.84, which was in the middle‑upper level, and showed the trend of ‘rising‑declining‑rising’. During 2011—2020, the MI index in Xinjiang was greater than 1, and the centre of the curve of the kernel density was shifted to the right, indicating that the eco‑efficiency of cropland use in Xinjiang was improving, and it was in the stage of increasing returns to scale. The inputs and non‑desired outputs of Xinjiang's cropland utilisation eco‑efficiency have not reached the relatively efficient region, and also have some redundancy, and irrational inputs as well as a large amount of carbon and pollution emissions are the main reasons for the ineffectiveness of cropland utilisation eco‑efficiency. Therefore, the following suggestions are put forward to increase the research and development of agricultural science and technology, improve the construction of infrastructure, adjust the input ratio of production factors to improve the ecological efficiency of cropland use, and promote the coordinated development of the region to narrow the regional gap.

Key words: Xinjiang, cropland utilization, eco?efficiency, super?efficiency DEA—SBM model, spatio?temporal evolution

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