关键词: 风险偏好, 风险感知, 低碳生产行为, 棉农, 新疆

Abstract: Improving risk management and guiding farmers' low‑carbon production is the key to promote the green and low‑carbon transformation of agriculture. Based on the survey data of 289 cotton farmers in Xinjiang， this paper used the Ordered Probit model to empirically analyze the impact of risk preference and risk perception on low carbon production behavior of cotton farmers from the perspective of risk and heterogeneity of low carbon production technology. The research found that: The average low carbon production behavior of the sample cotton farmers was 5.443， which was at the medium adoption level. Risk preference had a significant positive impact on low carbon production behavior of cotton farmers at the level of 1%， risk perception had a significant negative impact on low carbon production behavior of cotton farmers at the level of 1%， and played a significant negative regulatory role between risk preference and low carbon production behavior. The roles of risk preference and risk perception in heterogeneous cotton farmers were quite different. Risk preference had a greater impact on the number of low‑carbon technologies adopted by cotton farmers with high education and high planting experience， and risk perception had a greater impact on the low‑carbon production behavior of cotton farmers with low education， low planting experience and non‑part‑time cotton farmers. The impact of risk preference on low carbon production behavior of cotton farmers with organizational and institutional heterogeneity was significantly positive at the level of 1%， but the risk perception of cooperative cotton farmers was negatively correlated with low carbon production behavior at the level of 10%， and the interaction item of risk preference and risk perception was positively correlated at the level of 10%. The XPCC cotton farmers' risk perception had no significant negative impact on their low‑carbon production behavior， and also had no regulatory effect. 

Key words: risk preference, risk perception, low carbon production behavior, cotton farmers, Xinjiang